About FantasyFire
FantasyFire is a projection and +EV research tool for player props across eight pro and college leagues. We turn public game logs into a matchup-adjusted projection for every prop, convert it to the probability the line clears, and price it against the market — so you can find the soft number instead of trusting someone else’s “locks.”
What it does
- Projections for any stat and line — a recency-weighted base adjusted for the opponent, pace, the Vegas game total, and recent usage, then turned into a probability with a sound distribution.
- Edge vs. the market — we de-vig the books we track to a no-vig fair price, flag the best available number, and show the +EV, automatically.
- FireFactor — one transparent heat read blending the projection, hit rate, consistency, and matchup, with its full component breakdown.
- Sample-size confidence— a 95% Wilson interval on every rate, so a hot streak on a few games doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
- Availability— injury and Out flags that gate a read, so you aren’t reading a number for a player who isn’t taking the field.
What makes it different
Most prop tools sell confidence. We show our work. Every projection comes with its uncertainty— a “4 of 5” over a handful of games and a “40 of 50” over a season are not the same bet, and we make that difference impossible to miss. No black box: the weights are published and the math is on the how it works page.
What it isn’t
FantasyFire is not a tout service and does not sell picks. A projection and a +EV number are research, not a guarantee — nothing here is betting, financial, or investment advice, and a soft line can still lose. We show you the math and the market price; the wager is yours. See responsible gaming.
Where the data comes from
Projections are computed from publicly available game logs for every league we cover, refreshed nightly. The market prices, Vegas game totals, and injury status come from public sportsbook and league feeds, refreshed through the day. FantasyFire is independent and is not affiliated with or endorsed by any league, the NCAA, any team or school, or any sportsbook; league and team names and logos are the property of their respective owners.
Contact
Questions, feedback, a data correction, a partnership, or press? Email us and a human will read it.
Good things to email about:
- Bugs, wrong numbers, or a player/matchup that looks off
- Feature requests and feedback
- Partnership, advertising, or media inquiries
We’re a small, independent team, so please allow a few days for a reply. One thing we can’t help with: picks or betting advice —FantasyFire is a research tool, not a tout service (why).