FireFactor Accuracy
The settled ledger across every in-season league: each recent slate’s strongest pre-game FireFactor leans — recomputed from only the game logs available before that slate — checked against what actually happened. Each row is tagged with its sport; pick a single league above.
Side
Showing all leans — 385 of 638 landed (60%).
Aug 7, 2026
9 of 12 landed- ✓MLBXander BogaertsU 1.5 TBgot 0
- ✓MLBXavier EdwardsU 1.5 Hgot 0
- ✓MLBMatthew OlsonU 1.5 Hgot 1
- ✗MLBGeraldo PerdomoU 1.5 TBgot 5
- ✗MLBFernando TatisU 1.5 Hgot 2
- ✓MLBErnie ClementU 1.5 Hgot 0
- ✗MLBKevin McGonigleU 1.5 Hgot 3
- ✓MLBMichael HarrisU 1.5 Hgot 0
- ✓MLBJunior CamineroU 1.5 Hgot 0
- ✓MLBYandy DíazU 1.5 Hgot 0
- ✓MLBAlec BurlesonU 1.5 Hgot 0
- ✓MLBJordan WalkerU 1.5 Hgot 1
Aug 6, 2026
3 of 12 landed- ✓MLBGunnar HendersonU 1.5 Hgot 0
- ✗MLBBryce HarperU 1.5 Hgot 2
- ✗MLBXander BogaertsU 1.5 TBgot 2
- ✗MLBNasim NuñezO 3.5 FSgot 2
- ✓MLBJarren DuranU 1.5 TBgot 0
- ✗MLBChase MeidrothU 1.5 Hgot 3
- ✗MLBTrea TurnerU 1.5 Hgot 2
- ✗MLBBrandon MarshU 1.5 Hgot 2
- ✗MLBBo BichetteU 1.5 Hgot 2
- ✓MLBFernando TatisU 1.5 Hgot 1
- ✗MLBMichael HarrisU 1.5 Hgot 3
- ✗MLBXavier EdwardsU 1.5 TBgot 2
Aug 5, 2026
8 of 11 landed · 1 push- ✓MLBMatthew OlsonU 1.5 Hgot 0
- ✓MLBXavier EdwardsU 1.5 Hgot 1
- ✓MLBXander BogaertsU 1.5 TBgot 0
- ✓MLBBo BichetteU 1.5 TBgot 1
- –MLBBryan ReynoldsO 5 FSgot 5
- ✓MLBFernando TatisU 1.5 Hgot 1
- ✗MLBPaul AbramsU 1.5 Hgot 3
- ✓MLBJackson MerrillU 1.5 Hgot 0
- ✓MLBErnie ClementU 1.5 Hgot 1
- ✗MLBMichael HarrisU 1.5 Hgot 2
- ✗MLBIvan HerreraU 1.5 TBgot 2
- ✓MLBJunior CamineroU 1.5 Hgot 1
Aug 4, 2026
5 of 12 landed- ✓MLBXavier EdwardsU 1.5 Hgot 0
- ✓MLBAndy PagesU 1.5 Hgot 0
- ✗MLBXander BogaertsU 1.5 TBgot 3
- ✗MLBKyle TuckerU 1.5 TBgot 5
- ✗MLBBryan ReynoldsO 5 FSgot 0
- ✓MLBFernando TatisU 1.5 Hgot 1
- ✗MLBJunior CamineroU 1.5 Hgot 2
- ✓MLBMichael HarrisU 1.5 Hgot 1
- ✗MLBYandy DíazU 1.5 Hgot 2
- ✓MLBJonathan ArandaU 1.5 Hgot 1
- ✗MLBCarson BengeU 1.5 TBgot 4
- ✗MLBGeraldo PerdomoU 1.5 TBgot 2
Aug 3, 2026
8 of 12 landed- ✓WNBAJackie YoungU 28.5 PTSgot 28
- ✓WNBANaLyssa SmithO 17.5 PRAgot 22
- ✓WNBAAlyssa ThomasO 14.5 PTSgot 19
- ✓WNBAAngel ReeseU 1.5 3PMgot 0
- ✗WNBAJordin CanadaO 8.5 PTSgot 7
- ✓MLBJackson MerrillU 1.5 Hgot 1
- ✗MLBJunior CamineroU 1.5 Hgot 2
- ✓MLBXander BogaertsU 1.5 TBgot 1
- ✓MLBBryan ReynoldsO 5 FSgot 8
- ✗MLBAlexander BregmanU 1.5 TBgot 2
- ✗WNBAA'ja WilsonO 23.5 PTSgot 23
- ✓WNBAJewell LoydO 1.5 3PMgot 2
Aug 2, 2026
4 of 12 landed- ✗WNBAPaige BueckersO 14.5 PTSgot 6
- ✗WNBADiamond MillerU 19.5 PTSgot 22
- ✗WNBAAzzi FuddO 1.5 ASTgot 1
- ✓WNBAArike OgunbowaleO 26 FSgot 30.5
- ✗WNBAKayla ThorntonO 15.5 PRAgot 4
- ✗MLBJunior CamineroU 1.5 Hgot 2
- ✗MLBJackson MerrillU 1.5 Hgot 2
- ✓MLBBo BichetteU 1.5 TBgot 0
- ✓MLBCeddanne RafaelaO 5 FSgot 19
- ✓WNBAVeronica BurtonO 22.5 PRAgot 25
- ✗WNBAGabby WilliamsO 19.5 PRAgot 18
- ✗WNBAJessica ShepardO 11.5 REBgot 9
Aug 1, 2026
10 of 12 landed- ✓WNBAJonquel JonesO 8.5 PTSgot 16
- ✗WNBADeWanna BonnerU 20.5 PTSgot 25
- ✓MLSIván AnguloU 2.5 SHgot 2
- ✓WNBAAlyssa ThomasO 12.5 PTSgot 17
- ✓MLSHugo PicardU 1.5 SOTgot 0
- ✓MLSDaniel LovitzU 1.5 SHgot 1
- ✓MLBSalvador PerezU 1.5 Hgot 1
- ✓MLBCarter JensenU 1.5 Hgot 1
- ✗WNBAPauline AstierO 2.5 ASTgot 2
- ✓WNBANaLyssa SmithU 17.5 PTSgot 17
- ✓MLBKetel MarteO 4.5 FSgot 9
- ✓MLBBo BichetteU 1.5 TBgot 1
Jul 31, 2026
4 of 12 landed- ✗WNBAShakira AustinU 23.5 PTSgot 28
- ✓WNBACarla LeiteO 5.5 ASTgot 12
- ✗WNBAJessica ShepardO 30.5 PRAgot 22
- ✓WNBAMonique BillingsO 8.5 PTSgot 15
- ✗WNBAEmily EngstlerO 5.5 REBgot 2
- ✗MLBSalvador PerezU 1.5 Hgot 2
- ✓MLBCarter JensenU 1.5 Hgot 1
- ✗MLBCarson BengeU 1.5 TBgot 4
- ✗MLBSpencer TorkelsonU 1.5 TBgot 3
- ✗MLSLuka GavranU 3 SVgot 4
- ✗WNBAAzzi FuddO 1.5 ASTgot 0
- ✓WNBAAngel ReeseO 37 FSgot 42.6
Jul 30, 2026
6 of 12 landed- ✓WNBACourtney WilliamsO 11.5 PTSgot 16
- ✗WNBANatasha HowardO 22.5 PRAgot 21
- ✗WNBANaLyssa SmithO 16.5 PRAgot 12
- ✓MLBSalvador PerezU 1.5 Hgot 0
- ✓MLBCarter JensenU 1.5 Hgot 0
- ✓MLBJarren DuranU 1.5 TBgot 0
- ✓WNBAPauline AstierO 2.5 ASTgot 4
- ✗MLBBo BichetteU 1.5 TBgot 3
- ✗WNBAChelsea GrayO 6.5 ASTgot 4
- ✗MLBOtto LopezO 5.5 FSgot 0
- ✗WNBACharlisse Leger-WalkerO 13.5 PRAgot 13
- ✓MLBBryan ReynoldsU 1.5 Hgot 0
Jul 29, 2026
8 of 12 landed- ✓WNBAAzzi FuddO 1.5 ASTgot 2
- ✗WNBAKayla ThorntonO 9.5 PTSgot 6
- ✓WNBAArike OgunbowaleO 14.5 PTSgot 24
- ✓WNBADeWanna BonnerO 5.5 REBgot 10
- ✗WNBAPaige BueckersO 30.5 PRAgot 26
- ✓MLBChase MeidrothU 1.5 Hgot 1
- ✓MLBJunior CamineroU 1.5 Hgot 0
- ✗MLBIvan HerreraU 1.5 TBgot 5
- ✓MLBCarson BengeU 1.5 TBgot 1
- ✓MLSMax ArfstenU 1.5 SHgot 0
- ✗MLS EvanderO 1.5 SOTgot 1
- ✓MLSCarles GilU 1.5 SHgot 1
Jul 28, 2026
5 of 12 landed- ✗WNBAEmily EngstlerO 17.5 PRAgot 17
- ✓WNBANatasha HowardO 21.5 PRAgot 23
- ✗WNBACarla LeiteO 5.5 ASTgot 3
- ✓WNBAGeorgia AmooreU 17.5 PTSgot 8
- ✓WNBAMonique BillingsO 7.5 PTSgot 14
- ✗WNBAAliyah BostonO 26.5 PRAgot 14
- ✗WNBACourtney WilliamsO 22.5 PRAgot 13
- ✗WNBAShakira AustinO 27.5 PRAgot 24
- ✗WNBAMaria CondeU 4.5 REBgot 10
- ✓WNBAJackie YoungO 27.5 PRAgot 29
- ✗WNBAFlau'jae JohnsonO 5.5 REBgot 3
- ✓WNBABridget CarletonO 12.5 PTSgot 13
Jul 25, 2026
7 of 12 landed- ✗MLSAlonso CoelloU 1.5 SHgot 2
- ✓MLSIván AnguloU 2.5 SHgot 0
- ✓WNBAKelsey MitchellO 2.5 3PMgot 5
- ✗MLSMaxime CrépeauO 3.5 SVgot 2
- ✗WNBARhyne HowardO 3.5 REBgot 3
- ✗WNBAMarina MabreyO 3.5 ASTgot 2
- ✓WNBABreanna StewartO 3.5 ASTgot 7
- ✓MLS EvanderO 3 SHgot 4
- ✗WNBACourtney WilliamsU 1.5 3PMgot 2
- ✓MLSBrian SchwakeU 3.5 SVgot 3
- ✓MLSSean ZawadzkiU 1.5 SHgot 0
- ✓MLSRudy CamachoU 1.5 SHgot 0
Jul 23, 2026
6 of 12 landed- ✓WNBAFrieda BuhnerU 19.5 PTSgot 15
- ✗WNBAEmily EngstlerO 17.5 PRAgot 9
- ✗WNBAAliyah BostonO 7.5 REBgot 6
- ✓WNBABridget CarletonO 25 FSgot 27
- ✓MLSTimo BaumgartlU 1.5 SHgot 0
- ✓WNBAMonique BillingsO 14.5 PRAgot 18
- ✓MLSShaq MooreU 1.5 SHgot 0
- ✗MLSKristijan KahlinaU 3.5 SVgot 4
- ✗MLSDejan JoveljicU 1.5 SOTgot 2
- ✗MLSLucas HoyosU 2.5 SVgot 7
- ✗WNBAPaige BueckersO 30.5 PRAgot 30
- ✓WNBACaitlin ClarkO 30.5 PRAgot 40
Jul 22, 2026
10 of 11 landed · 1 push- ✓MLSAlonso CoelloU 1.5 SHgot 0
- ✓MLSMax ArfstenU 3.5 SHgot 1
- –WNBAKamilla CardosoO 28.5 FSgot 28.5
- ✗WNBANaLyssa SmithO 16.5 PRAgot 7
- ✓WNBAA'ja WilsonO 23.5 PTSgot 38
- ✓WNBAJackie YoungO 26.5 PRAgot 38
- ✓WNBAJonquel JonesO 1.5 ASTgot 2
- ✓MLSLuka GavranU 3.5 SVgot 3
- ✓MLSDániel SallóiO 1.5 SHgot 3
- ✓MLS EvanderO 3 SHgot 4
- ✓MLSSean ZawadzkiU 1.5 SHgot 0
- ✓MLSRudy CamachoU 1.5 SHgot 0
Jul 18, 2026
2 of 3 landed- ✗MLSAlexey MiranchukO 1.5 SHgot 1
- ✓MLSLucas HoyosU 2.5 SVgot 2
- ✓MLSDenis BouangaU 3.5 SHgot 3
The segment records above cover every settled lean across all leagues; each day’s list shows the top leans as examples.
How to read this honestly: rows are recomputed after the fact from the same public game logs the live board uses, settled at the line a book actually posted for that slate where we still have it (hover a line to see which) and at our own book-style half-point line otherwise. They omit the matchup / Vegas / pace context the live board folds in, because that context can’t be faithfully reconstructed later — so these are conservative reads. A small sample of settled days proves nothing either way; the point is transparency, not a win-rate claim. Descriptive research — never predictions, picks, or betting advice. See the methodology for the exact math.