FireFactor Accuracy
The settled ledger across every in-season league: each recent slate’s strongest pre-game FireFactor leans — recomputed from only the game logs available before that slate — checked against what actually happened. Each row is tagged with its sport; pick a single league above.
Side
Showing all leans — 475 of 848 landed (56%).
Nov 5, 2026
8 of 12 landed- ✓CBBTyler TannerO 14.5 PTSgot 17
- ✓NBADavion MitchellO 27.5 FSgot 34.4
- ✓NBATim Hardaway Jr.U 4.5 3PMgot 0
- ✗NFLMark AndrewsO 2.5 RECgot 2
- ✓NHLMitch MarnerU 1.5 Ggot 0
- ✓NHLJuraj SlafkovskyU 1.5 Ggot 0
- ✓NBAMiles BridgesO 25.5 PRAgot 36
- ✓NHLJackson LaCombeO 1.5 BLKDgot 2
- ✗NBABam AdebayoU 9.5 REBgot 10
- ✗NFLBhayshul TutenO 1.5 RECgot 0
- ✗CBBSebastian Williams-AdamsO 5.5 PTSgot 2
- ✓CBBTylen RileyU 5.5 ASTgot 3
Nov 4, 2026
4 of 12 landed- ✓NBAJaime Jaquez Jr.O 13.5 PTSgot 18
- ✗NBAMatas BuzelisO 12.5 PTSgot 12
- ✗NBADerrick WhiteU 17.5 PTSgot 24
- ✓NBADennis SchröderO 3.5 ASTgot 4
- ✗NBAJeremiah FearsO 3.5 ASTgot 2
- ✗CBBKhayri DunnU 2.5 REBgot 4
- ✓NHLIan ColeO 1.5 BLKDgot 4
- ✗CBBTahaad PettifordO 2.5 REBgot 2
- ✗CBBKevin OvertonO 32.5 FSgot 18.4
- ✗CBBBraden HausenU 1.5 ASTgot 2
- ✓NHLJacob TroubaU 1.5 SOGgot 0
- ✗NHLOwen PowerO 1.5 SOGgot 1
Nov 3, 2026
7 of 12 landed- ✓NHLNate SchmidtU 1.5 PTSgot 0
- ✓NHLJackson LaCombeO 1.5 BLKDgot 3
- ✓NHLAlexandre CarrierU 1.5 SOGgot 0
- ✗NHLJason RobertsonU 3.5 SOGgot 5
- ✓NHLClayton KellerO 2.5 SOGgot 5
- ✗CBBCam ManyawuO 7.5 PTSgot 7
- ✗CBBKael CombsU 6.5 PTSgot 7
- ✓CBBJT RockU 9.5 PTSgot 0
- ✗CBBIan SmikleU 7.5 PRAgot 8
- ✓CBBIsaia HowardU 1.5 ASTgot 0
- ✓NHLBrent BurnsU 2.5 SOGgot 0
- ✗NHLLawson CrouseU 1.5 SOGgot 3
Nov 2, 2026
7 of 12 landed- ✓NFLJaxon Smith-NjigbaO 101.5 REC YDSgot 118
- ✓CBBTrey McKenneyU 24.5 PTSgot 17
- ✓CBBUrban KlavzarU 19.5 PTSgot 9
- ✗NBAQuentin GrimesO 7.5 PTSgot 7
- ✓NBAJamal SheadO 4.5 ASTgot 6
- ✗NBARonald Holland IIO 2.5 REBgot 2
- ✗NBAMoussa DiabatéO 7.5 PTSgot 7
- ✗NBADennis SchröderO 4.5 ASTgot 1
- ✗CBBDenzel AberdeenO 13.5 PTSgot 7
- ✓CBBAde PopoolaU 4.5 3PMgot 4
- ✓CBBKhayri DunnO 1.5 REBgot 4
- ✓NHLJack EichelU 1.5 PTSgot 0
Nov 1, 2026
6 of 12 landed- ✓NFLJustin HerbertU 15.5 FSgot 9.78
- ✗NBAJarace WalkerO 22.5 FSgot 19.7
- ✓NFLRhamondre StevensonU 88.5 RUSH YDSgot 82
- ✓NBAScottie BarnesU 5.5 ASTgot 5
- ✗NFLCourtland SuttonU 3.5 RECgot 4
- ✓NFLKenneth Walker IIIU 6.5 RECgot 4
- ✓NHLVasily PodkolzinU 2.5 SOGgot 1
- ✓NHLJackson LaCombeO 1.5 BLKDgot 2
- ✗NBAKris DunnO 4.5 ASTgot 4
- ✗NBATristan da SilvaU 4.5 3PMgot 5
- ✗NBAJay HuffO 14 PRAgot 3
- ✗NFLHunter HenryO 11 FSgot 6
Oct 31, 2026
3 of 12 landed- ✗CFBJayden MaiavaO 244.5 PASS YDSgot 222
- ✗CFBMalachi ToneyO 104.5 REC YDSgot 75
- ✓WNBAAllisha GrayO 14.5 PTSgot 16
- ✗NBAJaden McDanielsO 5.5 REBgot 3
- ✓NBAJeremiah FearsO 30.5 FSgot 36.5
- ✗NHLLane HutsonO 1.5 SOGgot 1
- ✗WNBAVeronica BurtonO 10.5 PTSgot 10
- ✗WNBANaz HillmonO 3.5 REBgot 3
- ✗NBAAJ GreenO 6.5 PTSgot 0
- ✓CFBDrew MestemakerO 290.5 PASS YDSgot 323
- ✗CFBJeremiah SmithO 95.5 REC YDSgot 83
- ✗CFBJaylen RaynorU 1.5 PASS TDgot 3
Oct 30, 2026
7 of 12 landed- ✗NBAMatas BuzelisO 25.5 FSgot 19.5
- ✗NBASion JamesU 17 FSgot 23
- ✓NBAJay HuffU 19.5 PTSgot 13
- ✓NBAJarace WalkerU 11.5 REBgot 6
- ✓NBAJaden McDanielsU 9.5 REBgot 6
- ✓NHLJack EichelU 3.5 PTSgot 0
- ✗NHLMitch MarnerO 2 SOGgot 1
- ✗NHLIvan BarbashevU 1.5 SOGgot 3
- ✓NHLShea TheodoreO 1.5 SOGgot 3
- ✗NHLNoah HanifinU 1.5 SOGgot 4
- ✓NBAJamal MurrayU 11.5 ASTgot 5
- ✓NBADeMar DeRozanU 5.5 REBgot 1
Oct 29, 2026
7 of 12 landed- ✗WNBAVeronica BurtonO 18.5 PRAgot 18
- ✓WNBAAllisha GrayO 14.5 PTSgot 23
- ✓NBAJeremiah FearsO 15.5 PTSgot 22
- ✓WNBARhyne HowardO 22.5 PRAgot 29
- ✓WNBANaz HillmonO 3.5 REBgot 5
- ✗WNBAJordin CanadaO 6.5 ASTgot 2
- ✗NHLNoah DobsonU 1.5 PTSgot 2
- ✓NBAPrecious AchiuwaO 10.5 PTSgot 24
- ✓NHLJackson LaCombeO 1.5 BLKDgot 2
- ✓NFLJordan LoveO 1.5 PASS TDgot 3
- ✗NHLJason RobertsonU 3.5 SOGgot 4
- ✗NHLSebastian AhoO 2.5 SOGgot 1
Oct 28, 2026
7 of 12 landed- ✓NBASion JamesU 16.5 FSgot 14.9
- ✓NBAJeremiah FearsO 2.5 ASTgot 3
- ✗NBAJarace WalkerO 17.5 PRAgot 16
- ✗NBAJake LaRaviaU 4.5 REBgot 10
- ✓NBATim Hardaway Jr.U 14.5 PTSgot 14
- ✓NHLSean CouturierU 2.5 PTSgot 1
- ✓MLSCarles GilU 3.5 SOTgot 0
- ✗MLSTristan MuyumbaU 1.5 SOTgot 2
- ✓MLSDániel SallóiU 1.5 Ggot 0
- ✓MLSAshley WestwoodU 4.5 SHgot 0
- ✗MLSDor TurgemanU 1.5 Ggot 2
- ✗NHLNick SeelerO 1.5 BLKDgot 0
Oct 27, 2026
9 of 12 landed- ✗NBAQuentin GrimesO 8.5 PTSgot 2
- ✗NHLNick SeelerO 1.5 BLKDgot 0
- ✗NBANeemias QuetaO 16.5 PRAgot 12
- ✓NHLJason RobertsonU 3.5 SOGgot 3
- ✓NHLJackson LaCombeO 1.5 BLKDgot 3
- ✓NHLLane HutsonU 2.5 SOGgot 1
- ✓NBASam HauserO 1.5 3PMgot 3
- ✓NHLTrevor ZegrasO 1.5 SOGgot 3
- ✓NBAJulian ChampagnieU 4.5 REBgot 3
- ✓NBASandro MamukelashviliO 7.5 PTSgot 17
- ✓CFBSean WilsonO 4.5 RECgot 9
- ✓NHLOwen PowerU 2.5 SOGgot 1
Oct 26, 2026
5 of 12 landed- ✓NBAReed SheppardO 8.5 PTSgot 13
- ✗NBAMatas BuzelisO 12.5 PTSgot 11
- ✗WNBAAllisha GrayO 14.5 PTSgot 10
- ✗NBANeemias QuetaO 18.5 PRAgot 13
- ✓WNBANaz HillmonO 3.5 REBgot 11
- ✗WNBAJordin CanadaO 6.5 ASTgot 5
- ✓WNBACecilia ZandalasiniO 6.5 PTSgot 12
- ✗NFLGeorge PickensO 4.5 RECgot 4
- ✗WNBAKaila CharlesO 4.5 REBgot 4
- ✗NFLJake FergusonO 2.5 RECgot 0
- ✓NBASam HauserO 2.5 REBgot 4
- ✓NBACJ McCollumO 2.5 ASTgot 3
Oct 25, 2026
9 of 12 landed- ✓NFLJaxon Smith-NjigbaO 93.5 REC YDSgot 150
- ✓NFLAmon-Ra St. BrownU 10.5 RECgot 9
- ✓NFLTrey McBrideO 6.5 RECgot 10
- ✓NFLTre TuckerO 3.5 RECgot 5
- ✓NFLTroy FranklinU 4 FSgot 0
- ✓MLSSon Heung-MinU 1.5 SOTgot 0
- ✗MLSDenis BouangaU 1.5 SOTgot 2
- ✓NFLXavier HutchinsonU 3.5 RECgot 3
- ✓NFLJahmyr GibbsO 4.5 RECgot 5
- ✓NFLJared GoffU 338.5 PASS YDSgot 303
- ✗NFLBo NixU 214.5 PASS YDSgot 222
- ✗NFLElic AyomanorU 1.5 RECgot 3
Oct 24, 2026
8 of 12 landed- ✗WNBADeWanna BonnerO 3.5 REBgot 3
- ✓WNBAVeronica BurtonO 16.5 PRAgot 21
- ✗WNBAJordin CanadaO 6.5 ASTgot 4
- ✗WNBAAllisha GrayO 14.5 PTSgot 5
- ✓CFBJayden MaiavaO 253.5 PASS YDSgot 258
- ✓MLSMaren Haile-SelassieU 3.5 SOTgot 0
- ✓MLSTom BarlowU 4.5 SOTgot 1
- ✓MLSNathan HarrielU 3.5 SHgot 0
- ✓MLSBruno DamianiU 8.5 SHgot 2
- ✓CFBDrew MestemakerO 294.5 PASS YDSgot 386
- ✓MLSMilan IloskiU 2.5 Ggot 0
- ✗CFBKing MillerO 71.5 RUSH YDSgot 8
Oct 23, 2026
1 of 2 landed- ✗CFBNate SheppardO 37.5 FSgot 19.72
- ✓CFBCJ BaileyO 252.5 PASS YDSgot 256
Oct 22, 2026
3 of 3 landed- ✓NFLHunter HenryO 35.5 REC YDSgot 71
- ✓NFLLuther Burden IIIO 57.5 REC YDSgot 130
- ✓NFLRhamondre StevensonO 2.5 RECgot 5
Oct 21, 2026
8 of 12 landed- ✓WNBADeWanna BonnerO 3.5 REBgot 4
- ✗WNBAKayla ThorntonO 3.5 PTSgot 0
- ✗WNBAKaitlyn ChenO 4.5 PTSgot 2
- ✓MLSTom BarlowU 6.5 SHgot 5
- ✓MLSSamuel GidiU 2.5 SHgot 0
- ✓WNBAKaila CharlesO 4.5 REBgot 5
- ✓WNBAJordin CanadaO 7.5 ASTgot 8
- ✗WNBAAllisha GrayO 16.5 PTSgot 8
- ✓WNBATiffany HayesO 9.5 PTSgot 14
- ✗WNBAVeronica BurtonO 9.5 PTSgot 3
- ✓WNBARhyne HowardO 15.5 PTSgot 16
- ✓WNBACecilia ZandalasiniO 6.5 PTSgot 13
Oct 19, 2026
6 of 12 landed- ✗WNBADeWanna BonnerO 3.5 REBgot 2
- ✗WNBAKayla ThorntonO 4.5 PTSgot 2
- ✓WNBAAllisha GrayO 15.5 PTSgot 18
- ✓WNBAJordin CanadaO 6.5 ASTgot 10
- ✗WNBAKaila CharlesO 4.5 REBgot 3
- ✗NFLChristian McCaffreyU 4.5 RECgot 9
- ✓WNBAAngel ReeseO 1.5 ASTgot 3
- ✓WNBATiffany HayesO 9.5 PTSgot 14
- ✓WNBAVeronica BurtonO 9.5 PTSgot 11
- ✗WNBACecilia ZandalasiniO 7.5 PTSgot 5
- ✗WNBARhyne HowardO 15.5 PTSgot 5
- ✓WNBANaz HillmonO 3.5 REBgot 4
Oct 18, 2026
7 of 12 landed- ✗NFLJordan LoveO 1.5 PASS TDgot 1
- ✗NFLTrey McBrideO 7.5 RECgot 7
- ✓NFLXavier HutchinsonU 3.5 RECgot 2
- ✓NFLBhayshul TutenO 1.5 RECgot 4
- ✓NFLJustin HerbertU 13.5 FSgot 9.76
- ✓NFLKyren WilliamsO 2.5 RECgot 3
- ✓NFLTre TuckerO 3.5 RECgot 5
- ✗NFLDawson KnoxO 1.5 RECgot 1
- ✗NFLCam WardO 180.5 PASS YDSgot 102
- ✓NFLJames Cook IIIO 78.5 RUSH YDSgot 95
- ✗NFLDak PrescottO 278.5 PASS YDSgot 258
- ✓NFLJosh AllenO 241.5 PASS YDSgot 255
Oct 17, 2026
6 of 11 landed · 1 push- ✗WNBAKaitlyn ChenO 7.5 PRAgot 7
- ✗WNBAVeronica BurtonO 26 FSgot 21.3
- ✗WNBAKayla ThorntonO 4.5 PTSgot 0
- –WNBATiffany HayesO 13 PRAgot 13
- ✓WNBAJordin CanadaO 6.5 ASTgot 7
- ✓MLSCarles GilU 8.5 SHgot 0
- ✓MLSMaren Haile-SelassieU 6.5 SHgot 1
- ✗MLSMaxime CrépeauO 3.5 SVgot 3
- ✓MLSKristoffer VeldeO 2.5 SHgot 6
- ✓MLSLuka GavranO 2.5 SVgot 3
- ✗WNBAJanelle SalaunO 5.5 PTSgot 0
- ✓WNBAAllisha GrayO 25.5 FSgot 28.2
The segment records above cover every settled lean across all leagues; each day’s list shows the top leans as examples.
How to read this honestly: rows are recomputed after the fact from the same public game logs the live board uses, settled at the line a book actually posted for that slate where we still have it (hover a line to see which) and at our own book-style half-point line otherwise. They omit the matchup / Vegas / pace context the live board folds in, because that context can’t be faithfully reconstructed later — so these are conservative reads. A small sample of settled days proves nothing either way; the point is transparency, not a win-rate claim. Descriptive research — never predictions, picks, or betting advice. See the methodology for the exact math.