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Florida GatorsAlex Condon
#21 · F · 6' 11" · 236 lb · 11 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 11 of these 11 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Nov 2, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Line1×
Points · season avg 16.0 PTS · DK Pick6 lineSave this DK Pick6 prop to your Playbook to track it
DK Pick6 payout options — Points (PTS)
Pick any line — standard, demon (harder, pays more), goblin (easier, pays less), or an alternate with its payout multiplier — and the whole read updates to it. Only the standard line takes an under; every other variant pays the over only. Each rung’s FireFactor is scored against its OWN payout breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for that payout, not a coin flip — so rungs compare directly. The bar uses the best information available: an exact posted multiplier, else the market’s de-vigged sportsbook odds at that exact line, else a published-payout approximation. Payout-wt= season over rate × the rung’s multiplier — a per-leg comparison against the standard line’s 1×. Descriptive research, not betting advice.
Verdict
vs 14.5 PTSPointsNo readFireFactor 13/100· model 57% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)69supports it
Projection vs line57neutral
Consistency29argues against it
Projection
17.1 PTS(×0.98 context)
L5 19.2 · L10 16.6 · med 18.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 10.0 · ceil 22.0
Matchup
NR
small sample
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
80%over
4 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%Last 1010 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Last 2011 games
55%over
6 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 28%–79%Season11 games
55%over
6 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 28%–79%Situational splits
Over 14.5 PTS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home56%5/9Low
Away50%1/2Low
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)0%0/1Low
2 days50%1/2Low
3+ days71%5/7Low
Next matchup — vs JAX
Nov 6, 2026
401stof 436 in PTS allowed to forwards
JAX allows 2.2 PTS per game to forwards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 5 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Alex Condon has gone over 14.5 PTS 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 55% across the full season. JAX has been a tough matchup for forwards this season, allowing the 401st-most PTS of 436 teams (2.2 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game PTS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 6.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
2 books @ 14.5 PTS- No-vig fair (over)
- 49.7%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 50.3%
Best Over
FanDuel-102
-1.6% EV
Best Under
BetMGM-105
-1.8% EV
Model vs market (over)+7.7%
Our model puts the over at 57.4% vs the market's no-vig 49.7%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Points (PTS)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (14.5 PTS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
- BetMGMline 14.5over rate 55%edge 0
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate. This demon/goblin/alternate line pays the over only — no under to price.
Over only — this payout variant doesn't take an under.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 55%.