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Louisville CardinalsAlvaro Folgueiras
#7 · F · 6' 10" · 230 lb · 9 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 8 of these 9 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Nov 2, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Line1.1×
Points · season avg 11.1 PTS · DK Pick6 lineSave this DK Pick6 prop to your Playbook to track it
DK Pick6 payout options — Points (PTS)
Pick any line — standard, demon (harder, pays more), goblin (easier, pays less), or an alternate with its payout multiplier — and the whole read updates to it. Only the standard line takes an under; every other variant pays the over only. Each rung’s FireFactor is scored against its OWN payout breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for that payout, not a coin flip — so rungs compare directly. The bar uses the best information available: an exact posted multiplier, else the market’s de-vigged sportsbook odds at that exact line, else a published-payout approximation. Payout-wt= season over rate × the rung’s multiplier — a per-leg comparison against the standard line’s 1×. Descriptive research, not betting advice.
Verdict
vs 14.5 PTSPointsNo readFireFactor 4/100· model 28% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)15argues against it
Projection vs line32argues against it
Consistency25argues against it
Projection
11.4 PTS(×1.03 context)
L5 12.0 · L10 11.1 · med 10.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 6.0 · ceil 15.4
Matchup
NR
small sample
Scored against this payout variant's ~45% breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for its payout, not a coin flip. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 109 games
33%over
3 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–65%Last 209 games
33%over
3 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–65%Season9 games
33%over
3 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–65%Situational splits
Over 14.5 PTS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home20%1/5Low
Away50%2/4Low
Days since last game
3+ days38%3/8Low
Last matchup — vs UTC
Nov 2, 2026
57thof 436 in PTS allowed to forwards
UTC allows 9.3 PTS per game to forwards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 3 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
FavorableThe read
Over his last 9 games, Alvaro Folgueiras has gone over 14.5 PTS 3 of 9 decided times (33%) — versus 33% across the full season. UTC has been a favorable matchup for forwards this season, allowing the 57th-most PTS of 436 teams (9.3 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game PTS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 5.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate. This demon/goblin/alternate line pays the over only — no under to price.
Over only — this payout variant doesn't take an under.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 33%.