Kentucky Wildcats

Brandon Garrison Assists

Stats updated: Mar 22, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Brandon Garrison has gone over 1.5 AST in 3 of his last 10 decided games (30%), measured against our typical-game line.

Experience: 3 seasons

Verdict

vs 1.5 ASTAssists

Cool underFireFactor 45/100· model 67% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)96supports it

Projection vs line67supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

1.1 AST(×1.07 context)

L5 0.8 · L10 1.2 · med 1.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 1.0 · ceil 2.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

20%over

1 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%

Last 1010 games

30%over

3 over · 7 under

Low confidence95% CI 11%–60%

Last 2017 games

35%over

6 over · 11 under

Medium confidence95% CI 17%–59%

Season17 games

35%over

6 over · 11 under

Medium confidence95% CI 17%–59%

Alternate lines — Assists (AST)

AST over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate AST line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	88%	15/17
1.5Current	35%	6/17
	12%	2/17
	6%	1/17
	0%	0/17

Last 17 games — AST per game vs. line 1.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 1.5 AST by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home55%6/11Low

Away0%0/6Medium

Days since last game

1 day0%0/2Low

2 days50%2/4Low

3+ days40%4/10Low

Last matchup — @ ISU

Mar 22, 2026

261stof 708 in AST allowed to forwards

ISU allows 1.2 AST per game to forwards (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 71 player-games

Neutral

The read

Over his last 10 games, Brandon Garrison has gone over 1.5 AST 3 of 10 decided times (30%) — versus 35% across the full season. ISU has been a middling matchup for forwards this season, allowing the 261st-most AST of 708 teams (1.2 per game). His game-to-game AST have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 35%.