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Little Rock TrojansBraxton Bayless Rebounds
Stats updated: Mar 5, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Braxton Bayless has gone over 4.5 REB in 7 of his last 10 decided games (70%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Experience
- 4 seasons
Top reads — this player & matchup
pick one to load it belowRanked by FireFactor for the next matchup, straight from the game logs.
Line
Rebounds · season avg 4.6 REBSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 4.5 REBReboundsWarm overFireFactor 24/100· model 52% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)75supports it
Projection vs line52neutral
Consistency40neutral
Projection
4.5 REB(×0.98 context)
L5 4.2 · L10 4.9 · med 5.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 3.0 · ceil 5.0
Matchup
C
defense vs role
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
70%over
7 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 40%–89%Last 2019 games
58%over
11 over · 8 under
Medium confidence95% CI 36%–77%Season19 games
58%over
11 over · 8 under
Medium confidence95% CI 36%–77%Alternate lines — Rebounds (REB)
REB over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 19/19 | ||
| 89% | 17/19 | ||
| 74% | 14/19 | ||
| 4.5Current | 58% | 11/19 | |
| 16% | 3/19 | ||
| 16% | 3/19 | ||
| 11% | 2/19 |
Situational splits
Over 4.5 REB by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home57%4/7Low
Away58%7/12Low
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)75%3/4Low
1 day100%1/1Low
2 days100%1/1Low
3+ days42%5/12Low
Last matchup — vs MORE
Feb 27, 2026
349thof 726 in REB allowed to guards
MORE allows 3.2 REB per game to guards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 103 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Braxton Bayless has gone over 4.5 REB 7 of 10 decided times (70%) — versus 58% across the full season. MORE has been a middling matchup for guards this season, allowing the 349th-most REB of 726 teams (3.2 per game). His game-to-game REB have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 1.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 58%.
More Braxton Bayless research
Braxton Bayless — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Bayless Assists→
Assists hit rates and trends.
Bayless 3-Pointers Made→
3-Pointers Made hit rates and trends.
Bayless Steals→
Steals hit rates and trends.
Bayless Blocks→
Blocks hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
CBB Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.