Grand Canyon Lopes

Caleb Shaw Rebounds

Stats updated: Mar 12, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Caleb Shaw has gone over 4.5 REB in 4 of his last 10 decided games (40%), measured against our typical-game line.

Experience: 3 seasons

Verdict

vs 4.5 REBRebounds

Cool underFireFactor 30/100· model 59% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)79supports it

Projection vs line59neutral

Consistency41neutral

Projection

4.4 REB(×0.93 context)

L5 4.4 · L10 4.4 · med 4.0

Consistency

Variable

floor 3.0 · ceil 5.4

Matchup

defense vs role

Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 1010 games

40%over

4 over · 6 under

Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%

Last 2010 games

40%over

4 over · 6 under

Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%

Season10 games

40%over

4 over · 6 under

Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%

Alternate lines — Rebounds (REB)

REB over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REB line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	100%	10/10
	90%	9/10
	70%	7/10
4.5Current	40%	4/10
	20%	2/10
	20%	2/10
	0%	0/10

Last 10 games — REB per game vs. line 4.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 4.5 REB by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home50%3/6Low

Away25%1/4Low

Days since last game

2 days25%1/4Low

3+ days40%2/5Low

Last matchup — @ FRES

Jan 25, 2026

179thof 726 in REB allowed to guards

FRES allows 3.5 REB per game to guards (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 88 player-games

Favorable

The read

Over his last 10 games, Caleb Shaw has gone over 4.5 REB 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 40% across the full season. FRES has been a favorable matchup for guards this season, allowing the 179th-most REB of 726 teams (3.5 per game). His game-to-game REB have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 1.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 40%.