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American University EaglesCarson McDonald
#13 · F · 6' 9" · 220 lb · 3 games
Stats updated: Nov 15, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Experience
- Rookie
Line
Points · season avg 9.7 PTSSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 9.5 PTSPointsHot overFireFactor 55/100· model 52% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)99supports it
Projection vs line52neutral
Consistency78supports it
Projection
9.6 PTS
L5 9.7 · L10 9.7 · med 10.0
Consistency
Steady
floor 8.8 · ceil 10.6
Matchup
D
defense vs role
Recent history runs over on this line on a small sample, so read with extra caution. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 53 games
67%over
2 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–94%Last 103 games
67%over
2 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–94%Last 203 games
67%over
2 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–94%Season3 games
67%over
2 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–94%Alternate lines — Points (PTS)
PTS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 3/3 | ||
| 100% | 3/3 | ||
| 67% | 2/3 | ||
| 9.5Current | 67% | 2/3 | |
| 33% | 1/3 | ||
| 0% | 0/3 | ||
| 0% | 0/3 |
Situational splits
Over 9.5 PTS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home100%1/1Low
Away50%1/2Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%1/2Low
Last matchup — @ GW
Nov 13, 2025
457thof 708 in PTS allowed to forwards
GW allows 7.8 PTS per game to forwards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 62 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 3 games, Carson McDonald has gone over 9.5 PTS 2 of 3 decided times (67%) — versus 67% across the full season. GW has been a middling matchup for forwards this season, allowing the 457th-most PTS of 708 teams (7.8 per game). His game-to-game PTS have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 1.2), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 67%.