UT Martin Skyhawks

Damien King Steals

Stats updated: Mar 6, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Damien King has gone over 1.5 STL in 3 of his last 10 decided games (30%), measured against our typical-game line.

Experience: Rookie

Verdict

vs 1.5 STLSteals

No readFireFactor 7/100· model 60% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)76supports it

Projection vs line60supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

1.3 STL(×1.05 context)

L5 1.2 · L10 1.2 · med 1.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 3.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 1010 games

30%over

3 over · 7 under

Low confidence95% CI 11%–60%

Last 2014 games

43%over

6 over · 8 under

Low confidence95% CI 21%–67%

Season14 games

43%over

6 over · 8 under

Low confidence95% CI 21%–67%

Alternate lines — Steals (STL)

STL over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate STL line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	71%	10/14
1.5Current	43%	6/14
	29%	4/14
	7%	1/14
	0%	0/14

Last 14 games — STL per game vs. line 1.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 1.5 STL by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home33%3/9Low

Away60%3/5Low

Days since last game

0 days (B2B)0%0/3Low

1 day50%1/2Low

2 days50%1/2Low

3+ days50%3/6Low

Last matchup — vs TNST

Feb 28, 2026

158thof 726 in STL allowed to guards

TNST allows 1.1 STL per game to guards (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 93 player-games

Favorable

The read

Over his last 10 games, Damien King has gone over 1.5 STL 3 of 10 decided times (30%) — versus 43% across the full season. TNST has been a favorable matchup for guards this season, allowing the 158th-most STL of 726 teams (1.1 per game). His game-to-game STL have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 43%.