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Buffalo BullsDaniel Freitag Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)
Stats updated: Feb 25, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Daniel Freitag has gone over 37.5 FS in 5 of his last 10 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Experience
- 2 seasons
Top reads — this player & matchup
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Line
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) · season avg 37.8 FSSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 37.5 FSFantasy Score (PrizePicks)No readFireFactor 8/100· model 49% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)58neutral
Projection vs line49neutral
Consistency57neutral
Projection
36.3 FS(×0.99 context)
L5 37.1 · L10 37.9 · med 36.8
Consistency
Steady
floor 28.3 · ceil 46.5
Matchup
C
defense vs role
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2015 games
53%over
8 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 30%–75%Season15 games
53%over
8 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 30%–75%Alternate lines — Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) (FS)
FS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 67% | 10/15 | ||
| 53% | 8/15 | ||
| 53% | 8/15 | ||
| 37.5Current | 53% | 8/15 | |
| 47% | 7/15 | ||
| 33% | 5/15 | ||
| 33% | 5/15 |
Situational splits
Over 37.5 FS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home29%2/7Low
Away75%6/8Low
Days since last game
1 day100%1/1Low
2 days67%2/3Low
3+ days50%5/10Low
Last matchup — vs M-OH
Feb 3, 2026
418thof 726 in FS allowed to guards
M-OH allows 17.8 FS per game to guards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 120 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Daniel Freitag has gone over 37.5 FS 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 53% across the full season. M-OH has been a middling matchup for guards this season, allowing the 418th-most FS of 726 teams (17.8 per game). His game-to-game FS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 9.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 53%.
More Daniel Freitag research
Daniel Freitag — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Freitag Rebounds→
Rebounds hit rates and trends.
Freitag Assists→
Assists hit rates and trends.
Freitag 3-Pointers Made→
3-Pointers Made hit rates and trends.
Freitag Steals→
Steals hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
CBB Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.