Incarnate Word Cardinals

Davion Bailey Blocks

Stats updated: Mar 3, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Davion Bailey has gone over 0.5 BLK in 2 of his last 10 decided games (20%), measured against our typical-game line.

Experience: 4 seasons

Verdict

vs 0.5 BLKBlocks

Cold underFireFactor 58/100· model 77% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line77supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

0.4 BLK(×1.03 context)

L5 0.2 · L10 0.4 · med 0.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 0.2

Matchup

defense vs role

Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

20%over

1 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%

Last 1010 games

20%over

2 over · 8 under

Low confidence95% CI 6%–51%

Last 2015 games

20%over

3 over · 12 under

Medium confidence95% CI 7%–45%

Season15 games

20%over

3 over · 12 under

Medium confidence95% CI 7%–45%

Alternate lines — Blocks (BLK)

BLK over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate BLK line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	20%	3/15
	7%	1/15
	7%	1/15
	0%	0/15

Last 15 games — BLK per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 BLK by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home29%2/7Low

Away13%1/8Medium

Days since last game

2 days50%1/2Low

3+ days17%2/12Medium

Last matchup — vs SFA

Mar 3, 2026

171stof 726 in BLK allowed to guards

SFA allows 0.3 BLK per game to guards (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 113 player-games

Favorable

The read

Over his last 10 games, Davion Bailey has gone over 0.5 BLK 2 of 10 decided times (20%) — versus 20% across the full season. SFA has been a favorable matchup for guards this season, allowing the 171st-most BLK of 726 teams (0.3 per game). His game-to-game BLK have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 20%.