
#1 · G · 6' 3" · 2 games
Stats updated: Nov 29, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.
Recent history runs over on this line on a small sample, so read with extra caution. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
PTS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50% | 1/2 | ||
| 50% | 1/2 | ||
| 50% | 1/2 | ||
| 7.5Current | 50% | 1/2 | |
| 50% | 1/2 | ||
| 50% | 1/2 | ||
| 50% | 1/2 |
Over 7.5 PTS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
LIB allows 9.4 PTS per game to guards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 115 player-games
NeutralOver his last 2 games, Devan Edwards has gone over 7.5 PTS 1 of 2 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. LIB has been a middling matchup for guards this season, allowing the 374th-most PTS of 726 teams (9.4 per game). His game-to-game PTS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 4.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.