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South Dakota State JackrabbitsKalen Garry
#10 · G · 6' 3" · 200 lb · 13 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 12 of these 13 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Nov 3, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Line
Points · season avg 12.8 PTS · our lineSave this DK Pick6 prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 12.5 PTSPointsNo readFireFactor 6/100· model 53% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)60supports it
Projection vs line53neutral
Consistency40neutral
Projection
13.2 PTS(×0.99 context)
L5 12.0 · L10 12.5 · med 13.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 8.4 · ceil 16.8
Matchup
NR
small sample
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2013 games
54%over
7 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 29%–77%Season13 games
54%over
7 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 29%–77%Alternate lines — Points (PTS)
PTS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 69% | 9/13 | ||
| 62% | 8/13 | ||
| 62% | 8/13 | ||
| 12.5Current | 54% | 7/13 | |
| 46% | 6/13 | ||
| 31% | 4/13 | ||
| 23% | 3/13 |
Situational splits
Over 12.5 PTS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home33%2/6Low
Away71%5/7Low
Days since last game
1 day40%2/5Low
3+ days57%4/7Low
Last matchup — @ KSU
Nov 3, 2026
319thof 465 in PTS allowed to guards
KSU allows 5.8 PTS per game to guards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 5 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Kalen Garry has gone over 12.5 PTS 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 54% across the full season. KSU has been a tough matchup for guards this season, allowing the 319th-most PTS of 465 teams (5.8 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game PTS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 4.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 54%.