Illinois State Redbirds

Landon Wolf Turnovers

Stats updated: Apr 3, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Landon Wolf has gone over 0.5 TOV in 5 of his last 10 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.

Experience: 4 seasons

Verdict

vs 0.5 TOVTurnovers

No readFireFactor 7/100· model 60% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)53neutral

Projection vs line60neutral

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

0.4 TOV(×1.04 context)

L5 0.2 · L10 0.5 · med 0.5

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 1.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

20%over

1 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%

Last 1010 games

50%over

5 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%

Last 2014 games

50%over

7 over · 7 under

Low confidence95% CI 27%–73%

Season14 games

50%over

7 over · 7 under

Low confidence95% CI 27%–73%

Alternate lines — Turnovers (TOV)

TOV over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate TOV line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	50%	7/14
	0%	0/14
	0%	0/14
	0%	0/14

Last 14 games — TOV per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 TOV by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home60%3/5Low

Away44%4/9Low

Days since last game

2 days33%1/3Low

3+ days50%5/10Low

Last matchup — @ AUB

Apr 3, 2026

367thof 726 in TOV allowed to guards

AUB allows 1.2 TOV per game to guards (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 100 player-games

Neutral

The read

Over his last 10 games, Landon Wolf has gone over 0.5 TOV 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. AUB has been a middling matchup for guards this season, allowing the 367th-most TOV of 726 teams (1.2 per game). His game-to-game TOV have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.