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Austin Peay GovernorsRashaud Marshall
#5 · F · 6' 8" · 245 lb · 11 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 11 of these 11 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Nov 2, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Line
Points · season avg 22.4 PTS · our lineSave this DK Pick6 prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 20.5 PTSPointsWarm overFireFactor 30/100· model 73% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)69supports it
Projection vs line73supports it
Consistency46neutral
Projection
27.1 PTS(×1.06 context)
L5 27.4 · L10 23.7 · med 21.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 19.0 · ceil 27.0
Matchup
NR
small sample
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
80%over
4 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%Last 1010 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Last 2011 games
55%over
6 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 28%–79%Season11 games
55%over
6 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 28%–79%Alternate lines — Points (PTS)
PTS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 91% | 10/11 | ||
| 82% | 9/11 | ||
| 55% | 6/11 | ||
| 20.5Current | 55% | 6/11 | |
| 36% | 4/11 | ||
| 36% | 4/11 | ||
| 27% | 3/11 |
Situational splits
Over 20.5 PTS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%2/4Low
Away57%4/7Low
Days since last game
1 day67%2/3Low
3+ days57%4/7Low
Next matchup — @ KENN
Nov 7, 2026
332ndof 459 in PTS allowed to forwards
KENN allows 4.0 PTS per game to forwards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 2 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Rashaud Marshall has gone over 20.5 PTS 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 55% across the full season. KENN has been a tough matchup for forwards this season, allowing the 332nd-most PTS of 459 teams (4.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game PTS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 7.2), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 55%.