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Idaho VandalsSeth Joba
#21 · F · 6' 9" · 225 lb · 24 games
Stats updated: Mar 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Top reads — this player & matchup
pick one to load it belowRanked by FireFactor for the next matchup, straight from the game logs.
Line
Points · season avg 6.6 PTSSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 6.5 PTSPointsNo readFireFactor 12/100· model 65% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)62supports it
Projection vs line65supports it
Consistency30argues against it
Projection
5.2 PTS(×0.90 context)
L5 5.8 · L10 6.5 · med 6.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 5.0 · ceil 8.4
Matchup
C
defense vs role
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2020 games
45%over
9 over · 11 under
Medium confidence95% CI 26%–66%Season24 games
46%over
11 over · 13 under
Medium confidence95% CI 28%–65%Alternate lines — Points (PTS)
PTS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 83% | 20/24 | ||
| 83% | 20/24 | ||
| 71% | 17/24 | ||
| 6.5Current | 46% | 11/24 | |
| 33% | 8/24 | ||
| 21% | 5/24 | ||
| 17% | 4/24 |
Situational splits
Over 6.5 PTS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home54%7/13Low
Away36%4/11Low
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)50%2/4Low
1 day0%0/2Low
2 days50%1/2Low
3+ days47%7/15Low
Last matchup — @ MONT
Mar 12, 2026
405thof 708 in PTS allowed to forwards
MONT allows 8.1 PTS per game to forwards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 75 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Seth Joba has gone over 6.5 PTS 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 46% across the full season. MONT has been a middling matchup for forwards this season, allowing the 405th-most PTS of 708 teams (8.1 per game). His game-to-game PTS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 2.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 46%.