Bethesda Flames

Shane Sands Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)

Stats updated: Jan 17, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Shane Sands has gone over 9.5 FS in 1 of his last 2 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.

Experience: 2 seasons

Line

Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) · season avg 9.0 FS

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Verdict

vs 9.5 FSFantasy Score (PrizePicks)

No readFireFactor 5/100· model 29% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)50neutral

Projection vs line29argues against it

Consistency86supports it

Projection

9.0 FS

L5 9.0 · L10 9.0 · med 9.5

Consistency

Steady

floor 8.6 · ceil 9.6

Matchup

defense vs role

Recent history runs over on this line on a small sample, so read with extra caution. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 53 games

50%over

1 over · 1 under · 1 push

Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%

Last 103 games

50%over

1 over · 1 under · 1 push

Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%

Last 203 games

50%over

1 over · 1 under · 1 push

Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%

Season3 games

50%over

1 over · 1 under · 1 push

Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%

Alternate lines — Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) (FS)

FS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate FS line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	100%	3/3
	100%	3/3
	67%	2/3
9.5Current	50%	1/2
	0%	0/3
	0%	0/3
	0%	0/3

Last 3 games — FS per game vs. line 9.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 9.5 FS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Away50%1/2Low

Days since last game

3+ days0%0/1Low

Last matchup — @ USD

Jan 17, 2026

226thof 726 in FS allowed to guards

USD allows 19.8 FS per game to guards (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 91 player-games

Favorable

The read

Over his last 3 games, Shane Sands has gone over 9.5 FS 1 of 2 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. USD has been a favorable matchup for guards this season, allowing the 226th-most FS of 726 teams (19.8 per game). His game-to-game FS have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 0.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.