Boise State Broncos

Spencer Ahrens Steals

Stats updated: Mar 12, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Spencer Ahrens has gone over 0.5 STL in 5 of his last 10 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.

Experience: Rookie

Line

Steals · season avg 0.4 STL

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Verdict

vs 0.5 STLSteals

Cool underFireFactor 31/100· model 70% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)88supports it

Projection vs line70supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

0.3 STL(×0.90 context)

L5 0.4 · L10 0.6 · med 0.5

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 1.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 1010 games

50%over

5 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%

Last 2017 games

35%over

6 over · 11 under

Medium confidence95% CI 17%–59%

Season17 games

35%over

6 over · 11 under

Medium confidence95% CI 17%–59%

Alternate lines — Steals (STL)

STL over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate STL line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	35%	6/17
	6%	1/17
	0%	0/17
	0%	0/17

Last 17 games — STL per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 STL by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home44%4/9Low

Away25%2/8Low

Days since last game

2 days67%2/3Low

3+ days31%4/13Medium

Last matchup — @ CSU

Mar 7, 2026

391stof 708 in STL allowed to forwards

CSU allows 0.6 STL per game to forwards (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 63 player-games

Neutral

The read

Over his last 10 games, Spencer Ahrens has gone over 0.5 STL 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 35% across the full season. CSU has been a middling matchup for forwards this season, allowing the 391st-most STL of 708 teams (0.6 per game). His game-to-game STL have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 35%.