Samford Bulldogs

Will Shaver Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)

Stats updated: Mar 7, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Will Shaver has gone over 14.5 FS in 6 of his last 10 decided games (60%), measured against our typical-game line.

Experience: 2 seasons

Verdict

vs 14.5 FSFantasy Score (PrizePicks)

No readFireFactor 6/100· model 42% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)51neutral

Projection vs line42neutral

Consistency32argues against it

Projection

13.4 FS(×0.91 context)

L5 12.1 · L10 16.0 · med 16.9

Consistency

Variable

floor 9.7 · ceil 19.5

Matchup

small sample

Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

20%over

1 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%

Last 1010 games

60%over

6 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%

Last 2012 games

50%over

6 over · 6 under

Low confidence95% CI 25%–75%

Season12 games

50%over

6 over · 6 under

Low confidence95% CI 25%–75%

Alternate lines — Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) (FS)

FS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate FS line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	58%	7/12
	58%	7/12
	50%	6/12
14.5Current	50%	6/12
	50%	6/12
	42%	5/12
	36%	4/11

Last 12 games — FS per game vs. line 14.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 14.5 FS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home71%5/7Low

Away20%1/5Low

Days since last game

0 days (B2B)0%0/1Low

3+ days60%6/10Low

Last matchup — vs UNCG

Feb 28, 2026

299thof 479 in FS allowed to centers

UNCG allows 16.2 FS per game to centers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 8 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Neutral

The read

Over his last 10 games, Will Shaver has gone over 14.5 FS 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 50% across the full season. UNCG has been a middling matchup for centers this season, allowing the 299th-most FS of 479 teams (16.2 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game FS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 6.1), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.