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New York YankeesAaron Judge
#99 · RF · 6-7 · 282 lb · 65 games
Stats updated: Sep 16, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 11 seasons
Linepays more
Hits · season avg 0.9 H · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
PrizePicks payout options — Hits (H)
Pick any line — standard, demon (harder, pays more), goblin (easier, pays less), or an alternate with its payout multiplier — and the whole read updates to it. Only the standard line takes an under; every other variant pays the over only. Each rung’s FireFactor is scored against its OWN payout breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for that payout, not a coin flip — so rungs compare directly. The bar uses the best information available: an exact posted multiplier, else the market’s de-vigged sportsbook odds at that exact line, else a published-payout approximation.
How PrizePicks payouts work with demons & goblins
Typical entry payouts (verify in the app — they change and can vary by state): Power Play 2-pick 3×, 3-pick 5×, 4-pick 10×. Flex Play 3-pick 2.25× (1.25× one miss), 4-pick 5× (1.5× one miss), 5-pick 10× (2× / 0.4× on misses), 6-pick 25× (2× / 0.4× on misses).
Demons: Adding a demon raises the whole entry’s payout multiple (a harder line buys a bigger multiplier). Demons can only be taken as More.
Goblins: Adding a goblin lowers the whole entry’s payout multiple (an easier line costs payout). Goblins can only be taken as More and aren’t combinable with everything — the app shows the exact adjusted payout.
Injured ListInjured ListAaron Judge isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Right Calf Strain
- Est. return:
- Sep 29, 2026
"It doesn't matter what grade it is," manager Aaron Boone said, as the Yankees continue to offer little information regarding Judge's new injury. The one detail that was disclosed is that Judge is dealing with a strain of the soleus muscle, which is crucial to running and hitting, making it more difficult to play through than some other types of calf injuries. Judge added that he'd like to be back by the postseason. "That's definitely the plan," Judge said.
Verdict
vs 2.5 HHitsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 1% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)0argues against it
Projection vs line9argues against it
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup0argues against it
Projection
0.6 H(×0.83 context)
L5 0.8 · L10 0.6 · med 0.5
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 2.0
Matchup
F
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
0%over
0 over · 5 under
Medium confidence95% CI 0%–43%Last 1010 games
0%over
0 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 0%–28%Last 2020 games
0%over
0 over · 20 under
High confidence95% CI 0%–16%Season65 games
2%over
1 over · 64 under
High confidence95% CI 0%–8%Situational splits
Over 2.5 H by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home0%0/31High
Away3%1/34High
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)2%1/53High
1 day0%0/10Medium
3+ days0%0/1Low
With a teammate out
How this H line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Giancarlo Stanton out · Left Calf Strain
Without (41g)
0.9 H
2% over 2.5
With (24g)
0.9 H
0% over 2.5
Next matchup — vs TB
Sep 22, 2026
27thof 30 in H allowed to hitters
TB pitching allows 7.6 H per game to hitters (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 155 games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Aaron Judge has gone over 2.5 H 0 of 10 decided times (0%) — versus 2% across the full season. TB has been a tough matchup for hitters this season, allowing the 27th-most H of 30 teams (7.6 per game). His game-to-game H have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Yankee Stadium · New York Yankees
neutral (runs ×1.02, HR ×1.12)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Market edgeauto
4 books @ 0.5 H- No-vig fair (over)
- 64.3%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 35.7%
Best Over
BetMGM-210
-5.1% EV
Best Under
DraftKings+176
-1.4% EV
Model vs market (over)-63.6%
Our model puts the over at 0.6% vs the market's no-vig 64.3%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Hits (H)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (0.5 H). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate. This demon/goblin/alternate line pays the over only — no under to price.
Over only — this payout variant doesn't take an under.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 2%.