Loading…
Miami MarlinsAndrew Nardi
#43 · P · 6-3 · 215 lb · 25 games
Stats updated: May 27, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Line
Strikeouts (pitcher) · season avg 1.1 K · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Injured ListInjured ListAndrew Nardi isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Left Elbow Surgery
- Est. return:
- Feb 1, 2028
Arm specialist Dr. Keith Meister will perform Nardi's surgery, but the Marlins aren't expected to provide specifics on the procedure until the operation is completed. If Nardi requires a UCL repair or reconstruction rather than something less significant such as a flexor tendon surgery, he'll likely wind up missing the entire 2027 season. Nardi posted a 5.16 ERA, 1.41 WHIP and 27:11 K:BB while collecting three wins and eight holds over 22.2 innings with Miami this season before hitting the shelf May 30.
Verdict
vs 1.5 KStrikeouts (pitcher)No readFireFactor 0/100· model 66% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)98supports it
Projection vs line66supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
1.3 K
L5 1.6 · L10 1.3 · med 1.5
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 2.0
Matchup
—
no matchup
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2020 games
30%over
6 over · 14 under
Medium confidence95% CI 15%–52%Season25 games
32%over
8 over · 17 under
Medium confidence95% CI 17%–52%Alternate lines — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
K over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 72% | 18/25 | ||
| 1.5Current | 32% | 8/25 | |
| 4% | 1/25 | ||
| 0% | 0/25 | ||
| 0% | 0/25 |
Situational splits
Over 1.5 K by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home43%6/14Low
Away18%2/11Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)17%1/6Low
1 day29%2/7Low
2 days40%2/5Low
3+ days33%2/6Low
With a teammate out
How this K line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Owen Caissie out · Right Back Fracture+0.8 K when he sits
Without (4g)
1.8 K
50% over 1.5
With (21g)
1.0 K
29% over 1.5
No matchup data for this prop yet.
The read
Over his last 10 games, Andrew Nardi has gone over 1.5 K 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 32% across the full season. His game-to-game K have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
loanDepot park · Miami Marlins
pitcher-friendly (runs ×0.94, HR ×0.92)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 32%.