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Baltimore OriolesBlaze Alexander
#23 · 3B · 5-11 · 200 lb · 68 games
Stats updated: Sep 8, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Line
Hits · season avg 1.1 H · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Injured ListInjured ListBlaze Alexander isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Not Specified Back Soreness
- Est. return:
- Sep 22, 2026
Alexander had to be pulled from Tuesday's game versus the Guardians after his back started acting up on him, and ultimately the issue has forced another IL stint. He just returned from an extended absence less than two weeks ago. Jeremiah Jackson is taking Alexander's spot on the active roster.
Verdict
vs 0.5 HHitsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 63% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)97supports it
Projection vs line63supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup25argues against it
Projection
0.9 H(×0.97 context)
L5 0.8 · L10 1.0 · med 1.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 2.0
Matchup
D
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Last 2020 games
70%over
14 over · 6 under
Medium confidence95% CI 48%–85%Season68 games
66%over
45 over · 23 under
High confidence95% CI 54%–76%Alternate lines — Hits (H)
H over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5Current | 66% | 45/68 | |
| 31% | 21/68 | ||
| 15% | 10/68 | ||
| 0% | 0/68 |
Situational splits
Over 0.5 H by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home72%26/36Medium
Away59%19/32Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)67%26/39Medium
1 day67%10/15Medium
2 days50%3/6Low
3+ days71%5/7Low
With a teammate out
How this H line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Jackson Holliday out · Left Wrist Inflammation-0.4 H when he sits
Without (29g)
0.9 H
59% over 0.5
With (39g)
1.3 H
72% over 0.5
Tyler O'Neill out · Right Shoulder Strain-0.4 H when he sits
Without (34g)
0.9 H
56% over 0.5
With (34g)
1.3 H
76% over 0.5
Next matchup — vs TOR
Sep 22, 2026
24thof 30 in H allowed to hitters
TOR pitching allows 7.9 H per game to hitters (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 156 games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Blaze Alexander has gone over 0.5 H 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 66% across the full season. TOR has been a tough matchup for hitters this season, allowing the 24th-most H of 30 teams (7.9 per game). His game-to-game H have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Camden Yards · Baltimore Orioles
neutral (runs ×1.00, HR ×1.05)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 66%.