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Milwaukee BrewersBrandon Lockridge
#20 · LF · 6-0 · 197 lb · 25 games
Stats updated: Aug 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Top reads — this player & matchup
pick one to load it belowRanked by FireFactor for the next matchup, straight from the game logs.
Line
Hits · season avg 1.0 H · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 0.5 HHitsHot overFireFactor 57/100· model 74% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it
Projection vs line74supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup50neutral
Projection
1.3 H(×0.97 context)
L5 1.4 · L10 1.2 · med 1.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 2.0
Matchup
C
defense vs role
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
80%over
4 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%Last 1010 games
80%over
8 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 49%–94%Last 2020 games
70%over
14 over · 6 under
Medium confidence95% CI 48%–85%Season25 games
76%over
19 over · 6 under
Medium confidence95% CI 57%–89%Alternate lines — Hits (H)
H over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5Current | 76% | 19/25 | |
| 24% | 6/25 | ||
| 0% | 0/25 | ||
| 0% | 0/25 |
Situational splits
Over 0.5 H by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home71%10/14Medium
Away82%9/11Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)85%11/13Medium
1 day60%3/5Low
2 days67%2/3Low
3+ days100%2/2Low
Next matchup — vs PIT
Aug 4, 2026
14thof 30 in H allowed to hitters
PIT pitching allows 8.2 H per game to hitters (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 114 games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Brandon Lockridge has gone over 0.5 H 8 of 10 decided times (80%) — versus 76% across the full season. PIT has been a middling matchup for hitters this season, allowing the 14th-most H of 30 teams (8.2 per game). His game-to-game H have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
American Family Field · Milwaukee Brewers
neutral (runs ×1.01, HR ×1.05)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 76%.