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Pittsburgh PiratesBrandon Lowe Walks
Stats updated: Aug 7, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Brandon Lowe has gone over 0.5 BB in 2 of his last 10 decided games (20%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 9 seasons
Linepays more
Walks · season avg 0.4 BB · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 0.5 BBWalksNo readFireFactor 4/100· model 33% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)43neutral
Projection vs line47neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup75supports it
Projection
0.3 BB(×1.02 context)
L5 0.2 · L10 0.2 · med 0.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 1.0
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Scored against this payout variant's ~36% breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for its payout, not a coin flip. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 1010 games
20%over
2 over · 8 under
Low confidence95% CI 6%–51%Last 2020 games
30%over
6 over · 14 under
Medium confidence95% CI 15%–52%Season106 games
34%over
36 over · 70 under
High confidence95% CI 26%–43%Alternate lines — Walks (BB)
BB over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5Current | 34% | 36/106 | |
| 5% | 5/106 | ||
| 1% | 1/106 | ||
| 1% | 1/106 |
Situational splits
Over 0.5 BB by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home32%18/56High
Away36%18/50Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)34%27/80High
1 day38%6/16Medium
2 days50%2/4Low
3+ days50%1/2Low
With a teammate out
How this BB line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Oneil Cruz out · Left Hand Fracture-0.2 BB when he sits
Without (50g)
0.3 BB
30% over 0.5
With (56g)
0.5 BB
38% over 0.5
Konnor Griffin out · Left Finger Strain-0.2 BB when he sits
Without (56g)
0.3 BB
27% over 0.5
With (50g)
0.5 BB
42% over 0.5
Next matchup — vs NYM
Aug 8, 2026
11thof 30 in BB allowed to hitters
NYM pitching allows 3.5 BB per game to hitters (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 117 games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Brandon Lowe has gone over 0.5 BB 2 of 10 decided times (20%) — versus 34% across the full season. NYM has been a middling matchup for hitters this season, allowing the 11th-most BB of 30 teams (3.5 per game). His game-to-game BB have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
PNC Park · Pittsburgh Pirates
neutral (runs ×0.97, HR ×0.90)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Line shopping — Walks (BB)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (0.5 BB). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate. This demon/goblin/alternate line pays the over only — no under to price.
Over only — this payout variant doesn't take an under.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 34%.
More Brandon Lowe research
Brandon Lowe — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Lowe Total Bases→
Total Bases hit rates and trends.
Lowe Home Runs→
Home Runs hit rates and trends.
Lowe RBIs→
RBIs hit rates and trends.
Lowe Runs→
Runs hit rates and trends.
Pitching Allowed by team→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
MLB Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.