Loading…
Cincinnati RedsBrandon Williamson
#55 · P · 6-6 · 210 lb · 6 games
Stats updated: Apr 29, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 4 seasons
Line
Strikeouts (pitcher) · season avg 3.2 K · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Injured ListInjured ListBrandon Williamson isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Left Shoulder Soreness
- Est. return:
- Aug 17, 2026
Williamson, who was placed on the injured list April 30 due to left shoulder fatigue, kicked off a rehab assignment Saturday. After battling some control issues in the first inning, Williamson settled in during the second frame before leaving the contest after tossing 39 pitches. The southpaw will look to build on that workload during his next rehab outing, which is expected to come Thursday with Triple-A Louisville, per Mark Sheldon of MLB.com.
Verdict
vs 3.5 KStrikeouts (pitcher)No readFireFactor 0/100· model 62% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)98supports it
Projection vs line62supports it
Consistency64supports it
Projection
3.2 K
L5 3.2 · L10 3.2 · med 3.0
Consistency
Steady
floor 3.0 · ceil 4.0
Matchup
—
no matchup
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 106 games
33%over
2 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 10%–70%Last 206 games
33%over
2 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 10%–70%Season6 games
33%over
2 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 10%–70%Alternate lines — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
K over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 6/6 | ||
| 100% | 6/6 | ||
| 83% | 5/6 | ||
| 3.5Current | 33% | 2/6 | |
| 0% | 0/6 | ||
| 0% | 0/6 | ||
| 0% | 0/6 |
Situational splits
Over 3.5 K by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home33%1/3Low
Away33%1/3Low
Days since last game
3+ days40%2/5Low
No matchup data for this prop yet.
The read
Over his last 6 games, Brandon Williamson has gone over 3.5 K 2 of 6 decided times (33%) — versus 33% across the full season. His game-to-game K have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 0.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Great American Ball Park · Cincinnati Reds
hitter-friendly (runs ×1.05, HR ×1.18)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 33%.