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Milwaukee BrewersBrandon Woodruff
#53 · P · 6-4 · 241 lb · 9 games
Stats updated: Jul 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 10 seasons
Line
Strikeouts (pitcher) · season avg 5.2 K · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Injured ListInjured ListBrandon Woodruff isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Right Shoulder Inflammation
- Est. return:
- Sep 30, 2026
The initial expectation when Woodruff was diagnosed with a capsule injury in his right shoulder in July was that he'd require season-ending surgery. However, he was able to avoid an operation after the shoulder healed more quickly than anticipated, and Woodruff was cleared to resume throwing in late August. He will not make it back before the end of the regular season, but there's a slim chance Woodruff could pitch at some point in the postseason.
Verdict
vs 5.5 KStrikeouts (pitcher)No readFireFactor 0/100· model 58% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)67supports it
Projection vs line58neutral
Consistency30argues against it
Projection
6.0 K(×1.08 context)
L5 5.4 · L10 5.2 · med 6.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 3.6 · ceil 6.0
Matchup
—
no matchup
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 109 games
56%over
5 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 27%–81%Last 209 games
56%over
5 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 27%–81%Season9 games
56%over
5 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 27%–81%Alternate lines — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
K over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 89% | 8/9 | ||
| 78% | 7/9 | ||
| 56% | 5/9 | ||
| 5.5Current | 56% | 5/9 | |
| 11% | 1/9 | ||
| 11% | 1/9 | ||
| 11% | 1/9 |
Situational splits
Over 5.5 K by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home60%3/5Low
Away50%2/4Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%4/8Low
With a teammate out
How this K line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Luis Rengifo out · Right Knee Surgery+3.2 K when he sits
Without (3g)
7.3 K
100% over 5.5
With (6g)
4.2 K
33% over 5.5
No matchup data for this prop yet.
The read
Over his last 9 games, Brandon Woodruff has gone over 5.5 K 5 of 9 decided times (56%) — versus 56% across the full season. His game-to-game K have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 2.2), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
American Family Field · Milwaukee Brewers
neutral (runs ×1.01, HR ×1.05)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 56%.