Loading…
Pittsburgh PiratesBraxton Ashcraft
#35 · P · 6-5 · 218 lb · 28 games
Stats updated: Sep 5, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 2 seasons
Line
Strikeouts (pitcher) · season avg 6.2 K · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Injured ListInjured ListBraxton Ashcraft isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Right Arm Soreness
- Est. return:
- Feb 1, 2027
Ashcraft landed on the 15-day injured list last week with right arm discomfort. He received multiple medical opinions and his injury is not considered serious, but the Pirates will not push the right-hander to return before the end of the season. Ashcraft had a breakout year for Pittsburgh, logging a 3.65 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 173:35 K:BB over 165.1 innings covering 28 starts.
Verdict
vs 5.5 KStrikeouts (pitcher)No readFireFactor 0/100· model 53% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)52neutral
Projection vs line53neutral
Consistency35argues against it
Projection
5.8 K
L5 5.6 · L10 5.1 · med 5.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 4.4 · ceil 8.6
Matchup
—
no matchup
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
30%over
3 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 11%–60%Last 2020 games
45%over
9 over · 11 under
Medium confidence95% CI 26%–66%Season28 games
54%over
15 over · 13 under
Medium confidence95% CI 36%–70%Alternate lines — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
K over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 93% | 26/28 | ||
| 86% | 24/28 | ||
| 79% | 22/28 | ||
| 5.5Current | 54% | 15/28 | |
| 43% | 12/28 | ||
| 29% | 8/28 | ||
| 21% | 6/28 |
Situational splits
Over 5.5 K by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home62%8/13Low
Away47%7/15Low
Days since last game
3+ days56%15/27Medium
With a teammate out
How this K line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Esmerlyn Valdez out · Left Hamstring Strain+0.8 K when he sits
Without (13g)
6.6 K
62% over 5.5
With (15g)
5.8 K
47% over 5.5
Endy Rodríguez out · Left Hip Surgery
Without (22g)
6.2 K
59% over 5.5
With (6g)
6.2 K
33% over 5.5
No matchup data for this prop yet.
The read
Over his last 10 games, Braxton Ashcraft has gone over 5.5 K 3 of 10 decided times (30%) — versus 54% across the full season. His game-to-game K have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 2.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
PNC Park · Pittsburgh Pirates
neutral (runs ×0.97, HR ×0.90)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 54%.