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Seattle MarinersBrendan Donovan
#33 · 3B · 5-11 · 210 lb · 36 games
Stats updated: Aug 21, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- Germany
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Line
Hits · season avg 1.1 H · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Injured ListInjured ListBrendan Donovan isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Not Specified Concussion Concussion
- Est. return:
- Sep 20, 2026
Donovan has still felt concussion symptoms like nausea, fatigue and dizziness while participating in pregame workouts, and he will not be cleared to play until he can make it through a whole pregame workout symptom free. The 29-year-old has been sidelined since he was hit in the head by a baseball prior to a game against the Cubs on Aug. 22.
Verdict
vs 0.5 HHitsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 76% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it
Projection vs line76supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup100supports it
Projection
1.7 H(×1.22 context)
L5 1.4 · L10 1.3 · med 1.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 2.0
Matchup
A
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
80%over
4 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%Last 1010 games
80%over
8 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 49%–94%Last 2020 games
70%over
14 over · 6 under
Medium confidence95% CI 48%–85%Season36 games
67%over
24 over · 12 under
Medium confidence95% CI 50%–80%Alternate lines — Hits (H)
H over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5Current | 67% | 24/36 | |
| 33% | 12/36 | ||
| 6% | 2/36 | ||
| 0% | 0/36 |
Situational splits
Over 0.5 H by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home73%11/15Medium
Away62%13/21Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)76%19/25Medium
1 day40%2/5Low
2 days50%1/2Low
3+ days33%1/3Low
With a teammate out
How this H line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Colt Emerson out · Left Wrist Surgery+0.5 H when he sits
Without (30g)
1.1 H
67% over 0.5
With (6g)
0.7 H
67% over 0.5
Next matchup — @ COL
Sep 20, 2026
1stof 30 in H allowed to hitters
COL pitching allows 10.1 H per game to hitters (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 155 games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Brendan Donovan has gone over 0.5 H 8 of 10 decided times (80%) — versus 67% across the full season. COL has been a favorable matchup for hitters this season, allowing the 1st-most H of 30 teams (10.1 per game). His game-to-game H have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
T-Mobile Park · Seattle Mariners
pitcher-friendly (runs ×0.93, HR ×0.95)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 67%.