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Seattle MarinersBrendan Donovan
#33 · 3B · 5-11 · 210 lb · 24 games
Stats updated: Aug 5, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- Germany
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Linepays more
Hits · season avg 1.0 H · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
PrizePicks payout options — Hits (H)
Pick any line — standard, demon (harder, pays more), goblin (easier, pays less), or an alternate with its payout multiplier — and the whole read updates to it. Only the standard line takes an under; every other variant pays the over only. Each rung’s FireFactor is scored against its OWN payout breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for that payout, not a coin flip — so rungs compare directly. The bar uses the best information available: an exact posted multiplier, else the market’s de-vigged sportsbook odds at that exact line, else a published-payout approximation.
How PrizePicks payouts work with demons & goblins
Typical entry payouts (verify in the app — they change and can vary by state): Power Play 2-pick 3×, 3-pick 5×, 4-pick 10×. Flex Play 3-pick 2.25× (1.25× one miss), 4-pick 5× (1.5× one miss), 5-pick 10× (2× / 0.4× on misses), 6-pick 25× (2× / 0.4× on misses).
Demons: Adding a demon raises the whole entry’s payout multiple (a harder line buys a bigger multiplier). Demons can only be taken as More.
Goblins: Adding a goblin lowers the whole entry’s payout multiple (an easier line costs payout). Goblins can only be taken as More and aren’t combinable with everything — the app shows the exact adjusted payout.
Injured ListInjured ListBrendan Donovan isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Left Groin Strain
- Est. return:
- Aug 4, 2026
Although ready to return, Donovan will spend time with his family "but he's through his rehab. He feels good and ready to go," Hollander relayed Friday. Donovan's return is good news for the Mariners, whose infield depth took a hit after the team placed J.P. Crawford (wrist) on the 10-day injured list. Prior to landing on the 10-day IL in mid-May due to a left groin strain, Donovan was slashing .274/.386/.452 with one steal, three home runs and eight RBI over 101 plate appearances.
Verdict
vs 1.5 HHitsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 28% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)37argues against it
Projection vs line43neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup25argues against it
Projection
0.9 H(×0.96 context)
L5 1.2 · L10 1.0 · med 1.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 2.0
Matchup
D
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 1010 games
20%over
2 over · 8 under
Low confidence95% CI 6%–51%Last 2020 games
25%over
5 over · 15 under
Medium confidence95% CI 11%–47%Season24 games
33%over
8 over · 16 under
Medium confidence95% CI 18%–53%Situational splits
Over 1.5 H by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home42%5/12Low
Away25%3/12Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)38%6/16Medium
1 day33%1/3Low
2 days0%0/1Low
3+ days0%0/3Low
Next matchup — vs TB
Aug 8, 2026
25thof 30 in H allowed to hitters
TB pitching allows 7.7 H per game to hitters (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 114 games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Brendan Donovan has gone over 1.5 H 2 of 10 decided times (20%) — versus 33% across the full season. TB has been a tough matchup for hitters this season, allowing the 25th-most H of 30 teams (7.7 per game). His game-to-game H have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
T-Mobile Park · Seattle Mariners
pitcher-friendly (runs ×0.93, HR ×0.95)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Market edgeauto
6 books @ 0.5 H- No-vig fair (over)
- 59.6%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 40.4%
Best Over
RT Sports-137
+3.2% EV
Best Under
DraftKings+139
-3.6% EV
Model vs market (over)-31.2%
Our model puts the over at 28.5% vs the market's no-vig 59.6%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Hits (H)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (0.5 H). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate. This demon/goblin/alternate line pays the over only — no under to price.
Over only — this payout variant doesn't take an under.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 33%.