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Detroit TigersBurch Smith
#65 · P · 6-4 · 225 lb · 13 games
Stats updated: May 21, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 14 seasons
Line
Strikeouts (pitcher) · season avg 1.5 K · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Injured ListInjured ListBurch Smith isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Right Shoulder Inflammation
- Est. return:
- Aug 8, 2026
Smith was making his second rehab appearance after missing nearly two months with right shoulder inflammation, so it's a worrisome setback. More should be known about the reliever's condition in the coming days.
Verdict
vs 1.5 KStrikeouts (pitcher)No readFireFactor 0/100· model 71% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it
Projection vs line71supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
1.1 K
L5 0.8 · L10 1.2 · med 1.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.4 · ceil 3.0
Matchup
—
no matchup
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
0%over
0 over · 5 under
Medium confidence95% CI 0%–43%Last 1010 games
20%over
2 over · 8 under
Low confidence95% CI 6%–51%Last 2013 games
31%over
4 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 13%–58%Season13 games
31%over
4 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 13%–58%Alternate lines — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
K over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 77% | 10/13 | ||
| 1.5Current | 31% | 4/13 | |
| 31% | 4/13 | ||
| 15% | 2/13 | ||
| 0% | 0/13 |
Situational splits
Over 1.5 K by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home22%2/9Low
Away50%2/4Low
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)0%0/1Low
1 day33%2/6Low
2 days40%2/5Low
No matchup data for this prop yet.
The read
Over his last 10 games, Burch Smith has gone over 1.5 K 2 of 10 decided times (20%) — versus 31% across the full season. His game-to-game K have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Comerica Park · Detroit Tigers
pitcher-friendly (runs ×0.96, HR ×0.91)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 31%.