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Minnesota TwinsByron Buxton
#25 · CF · 6-1 · 190 lb · 79 games
Stats updated: Jul 28, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 12 seasons
Line
Hits · season avg 1.1 H · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Injured ListInjured ListByron Buxton isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Right Hip Pinched Nerve
- Est. return:
- Aug 8, 2026
Buxton had to be yanked from Tuesday's contest with right hip soreness, which is the same injury he just returned from last week. He's considered day-to-day for now, but another trip to the injured list could be in the offing is Buxton doesn't experience sufficient improvement in the coming days. Luke Keaschall will play center field for the Twins on Wednesday.
Verdict
vs 0.5 HHitsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 65% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it
Projection vs line65supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup0argues against it
Projection
0.6 H(×1.00 context)
L5 0.4 · L10 0.8 · med 0.5
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 2.0
Matchup
F
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2020 games
65%over
13 over · 7 under
Medium confidence95% CI 43%–82%Season79 games
70%over
55 over · 24 under
High confidence95% CI 59%–79%Alternate lines — Hits (H)
H over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5Current | 70% | 55/79 | |
| 29% | 23/79 | ||
| 9% | 7/79 | ||
| 1% | 1/79 |
Situational splits
Over 0.5 H by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home64%25/39Medium
Away75%30/40Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)66%39/59High
1 day73%11/15Medium
3+ days100%4/4Low
Next matchup — @ MIL
Aug 8, 2026
29thof 30 in H allowed to hitters
MIL pitching allows 7.2 H per game to hitters (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 116 games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Byron Buxton has gone over 0.5 H 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 70% across the full season. MIL has been a tough matchup for hitters this season, allowing the 29th-most H of 30 teams (7.2 per game). His game-to-game H have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Target Field · Minnesota Twins
neutral (runs ×0.99, HR ×0.98)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Line shopping — Hits (H)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (0.5 H). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 70%.