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Baltimore OriolesCade Povich
#37 · P · 6-3 · 200 lb · 8 games
Stats updated: Sep 18, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Line
Strikeouts (pitcher) · season avg 3.5 KSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutCade Povich isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Left Elbow Surgery
- Est. return:
- Feb 1, 2027
Weyrich reveals that Povich had pitched through significant discomfort down the stretch of the regular season, and the decision was made to have surgery. It's a relatively minor operation as far as elbow surgeries go, and the Orioles anticipate Povich being ready to roll for spring training. The lefty held a 4.38 ERA, 1.49 WHIP and 28:15 K:BB across 37 innings at the major-league level in 2026. Assuming health, he's likely in line to compete for a spot in the Orioles' rotation in 2027.
Verdict
vs 3.5 KStrikeouts (pitcher)No readFireFactor 0/100· model 53% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)51neutral
Projection vs line53neutral
Consistency14argues against it
Projection
3.5 K
L5 3.4 · L10 3.5 · med 3.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 2.0 · ceil 4.6
Matchup
—
no matchup
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 108 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Last 208 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Season8 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Alternate lines — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
K over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 8/8 | ||
| 88% | 7/8 | ||
| 63% | 5/8 | ||
| 3.5Current | 50% | 4/8 | |
| 25% | 2/8 | ||
| 13% | 1/8 | ||
| 13% | 1/8 |
Situational splits
Over 3.5 K by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home67%2/3Low
Away40%2/5Low
Days since last game
3+ days57%4/7Low
With a teammate out
How this K line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Jackson Holliday out · Left Wrist Surgery-1.3 K when he sits
Without (5g)
3.0 K
40% over 3.5
With (3g)
4.3 K
67% over 3.5
No matchup data for this prop yet.
The read
Over his last 8 games, Cade Povich has gone over 3.5 K 4 of 8 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. His game-to-game K have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Camden Yards · Baltimore Orioles
neutral (runs ×1.00, HR ×1.05)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.