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Houston AstrosCarlos Correa
#1 · SS · 6-3 · 220 lb · 31 games
Stats updated: May 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- Puerto Rico
- Experience
- 12 seasons
Line
Hits · season avg 1.1 H · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Injured ListInjured ListCarlos Correa isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Left Ankle Surgery
- Est. return:
- Feb 1, 2027
The Astros announced Wednesday that Correa won't be able to make it back before the end of the season because he couldn't handle the workload he took on while rehabbing his ankle, and the inflammation appears to be a consequence of overworking himself. The results of his tests didn't reveal any structural damage, however, so there's still a strong chance that he'll be ready to go by the time the 2027 season begins.
Verdict
vs 0.5 HHitsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 65% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)99supports it
Projection vs line65supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup75supports it
Projection
0.9 H(×1.00 context)
L5 1.2 · L10 1.0 · med 1.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 2.0
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Last 2020 games
65%over
13 over · 7 under
Medium confidence95% CI 43%–82%Season31 games
68%over
21 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 50%–81%Alternate lines — Hits (H)
H over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5Current | 68% | 21/31 | |
| 32% | 10/31 | ||
| 10% | 3/31 | ||
| 0% | 0/31 |
Situational splits
Over 0.5 H by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home53%9/17Medium
Away86%12/14Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)71%17/24Medium
1 day75%3/4Low
2 days0%0/1Low
3+ days100%1/1Low
Next matchup — @ SEA
Sep 22, 2026
9thof 30 in H allowed to hitters
SEA pitching allows 8.4 H per game to hitters (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 156 games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Carlos Correa has gone over 0.5 H 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 68% across the full season. SEA has been a favorable matchup for hitters this season, allowing the 9th-most H of 30 teams (8.4 per game). His game-to-game H have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Daikin Park · Houston Astros
neutral (runs ×1.00, HR ×1.02)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 68%.