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Cincinnati RedsChase Burns
#26 · P · 6-3 · 210 lb · 29 games
Stats updated: Sep 18, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- Italy
- Experience
- 2 seasons
Line
Strikeouts (pitcher) · season avg 6.4 K · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Injured ListInjured ListChase Burns isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Right Groin Strain
- Est. return:
- Feb 1, 2027
The right-hander's workload has been limited during the final weeks of his rookie campaign, and he'll be shut down a bit early due to a groin injury. Burns elected not to pitch in the All-Star Game in July due to a similar injury, but there's no indication this is a serious concern. It was a strong debut season for the 23-year-old, who went 15-3 in 2026 with a 2.86 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 185:56 K:BB across 154.1 innings.
Verdict
vs 6.5 KStrikeouts (pitcher)No readFireFactor 0/100· model 50% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)68supports it
Projection vs line50neutral
Consistency41neutral
Projection
5.7 K
L5 5.2 · L10 6.1 · med 5.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 4.0 · ceil 8.4
Matchup
—
no matchup
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 1010 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Last 2020 games
55%over
11 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 34%–74%Season29 games
59%over
17 over · 12 under
Medium confidence95% CI 41%–74%Alternate lines — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
K over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 90% | 26/29 | ||
| 76% | 22/29 | ||
| 66% | 19/29 | ||
| 6.5Current | 59% | 17/29 | |
| 34% | 10/29 | ||
| 21% | 6/29 | ||
| 3% | 1/29 |
Situational splits
Over 6.5 K by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home57%8/14Low
Away60%9/15Medium
Days since last game
3+ days57%16/28Medium
With a teammate out
How this K line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Blake Dunn out · Right Elbow Surgery-1.8 K when he sits
Without (22g)
6.0 K
45% over 6.5
With (7g)
7.7 K
100% over 6.5
Spencer Steer out · Right Wrist Sprain-0.5 K when he sits
Without (11g)
6.1 K
36% over 6.5
With (18g)
6.6 K
72% over 6.5
No matchup data for this prop yet.
The read
Over his last 10 games, Chase Burns has gone over 6.5 K 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 59% across the full season. His game-to-game K have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 2.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Great American Ball Park · Cincinnati Reds
hitter-friendly (runs ×1.05, HR ×1.18)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 59%.