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New York MetsCionel Pérez
#52 · P · 6-0 · 175 lb · 36 games
Stats updated: Jul 29, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- Cuba
- Experience
- 9 seasons
Line
Strikeouts (pitcher) · season avg 1.1 K · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Injured ListInjured ListCionel Pérez isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Left Forearm Strain
- Est. return:
- Aug 14, 2026
Perez has tossed 5.2 scoreless frames with a 9:0 K:BB over his last five appearances but will now be shelved for at least the next couple weeks. The Mets have added Jonathan Pintaro and Xzavion Curry to their bullpen.
Verdict
vs 0.5 KStrikeouts (pitcher)No readFireFactor 0/100· model 70% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it
Projection vs line70supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
1.5 K
L5 1.8 · L10 1.8 · med 2.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 2.0
Matchup
—
no matchup
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
100%over
5 over · 0 under
Medium confidence95% CI 57%–100%Last 1010 games
100%over
10 over · 0 under
Medium confidence95% CI 72%–100%Last 2020 games
85%over
17 over · 3 under
Medium confidence95% CI 64%–95%Season36 games
67%over
24 over · 12 under
Medium confidence95% CI 50%–80%Alternate lines — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
K over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5Current | 67% | 24/36 | |
| 33% | 12/36 | ||
| 14% | 5/36 | ||
| 0% | 0/36 |
Situational splits
Over 0.5 K by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home60%12/20Medium
Away75%12/16Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)75%3/4Low
1 day62%8/13Low
2 days73%8/11Low
3+ days57%4/7Low
With a teammate out
How this K line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Juan Soto out · Left Calf Strain-0.6 K when he sits
Without (13g)
0.8 K
54% over 0.5
With (23g)
1.3 K
74% over 0.5
Mark Vientos out · Right Hand Fracture
Without (20g)
1.1 K
70% over 0.5
With (16g)
1.1 K
63% over 0.5
No matchup data for this prop yet.
The read
Over his last 10 games, Cionel Pérez has gone over 0.5 K 10 of 10 decided times (100%) — versus 67% across the full season. His game-to-game K have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Citi Field · New York Mets
pitcher-friendly (runs ×0.96, HR ×0.95)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 67%.