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Toronto Blue JaysCody Ponce
#66 · P · 6-6 · 255 lb · 1 games
Stats updated: Mar 30, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 7 seasons
Line
Strikeouts (pitcher) · season avg 3.0 K · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Injured ListInjured ListCody Ponce isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Right Knee Surgery
- Est. return:
- Oct 15, 2026
Schneider's comments come as little surprise, as Ponce's 2026 campaign was already expected to be over after he tore the ACL in his right knee in his Blue Jays debut March 30 and required surgery a few weeks later. On a positive note, the fact that Ponce hasn't completely been ruled out from pitching if the Blue Jays make a deep playoff run suggests that his recovery has thus far gone smoothly, and he's on track to be 100 percent for spring training. Ponce is under contract through 2028 after signing a three-year, $30 million deal with the Blue Jays back in December following an outstanding 2025 season in the Korea Baseball Organization.
Verdict
vs 2.5 KStrikeouts (pitcher)No readFireFactor 0/100· model 55% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it
Projection vs line55neutral
Consistency100supports it
Projection
2.8 K(×0.92 context)
L5 3.0 · L10 3.0 · med 3.0
Consistency
Steady
floor 3.0 · ceil 3.0
Matchup
—
no matchup
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 51 game
100%over
1 over · 0 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–100%Last 101 game
100%over
1 over · 0 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–100%Last 201 game
100%over
1 over · 0 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–100%Season1 game
100%over
1 over · 0 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–100%Alternate lines — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
K over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 1/1 | ||
| 100% | 1/1 | ||
| 2.5Current | 100% | 1/1 | |
| 0% | 0/1 | ||
| 0% | 0/1 | ||
| 0% | 0/1 |
Situational splits
Over 2.5 K by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home100%1/1Low
No matchup data for this prop yet.
The read
Over his last 1 games, Cody Ponce has gone over 2.5 K 1 of 1 decided times (100%) — versus 100% across the full season. His game-to-game K have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 0.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Rogers Centre · Toronto Blue Jays
neutral (runs ×1.01, HR ×1.03)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 100%.