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Seattle MarinersColt Emerson
#4 · SS · 6-0 · 195 lb · 66 games
Stats updated: Aug 13, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- Rookie
Line
Hits · season avg 0.6 H · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Injured ListInjured ListColt Emerson isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Left Wrist Surgery
- Est. return:
- Feb 1, 2027
The transaction frees up a spot on the 40-man roster for the return of Cooper Criswell from the 60-day IL. Emerson underwent season-ending surgery last week to repair a tendon in his left wrist.
Verdict
vs 0.5 HHitsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 57% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)54neutral
Projection vs line57neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
0.4 H(×0.95 context)
L5 0.2 · L10 0.6 · med 0.5
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 1.0
Matchup
F
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2020 games
55%over
11 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 34%–74%Season66 games
48%over
32 over · 34 under
High confidence95% CI 37%–60%Alternate lines — Hits (H)
H over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5Current | 48% | 32/66 | |
| 11% | 7/66 | ||
| 3% | 2/66 | ||
| 2% | 1/66 |
Situational splits
Over 0.5 H by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home44%16/36Medium
Away53%16/30Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)53%27/51Medium
1 day40%4/10Low
2 days50%1/2Low
3+ days0%0/2Low
With a teammate out
How this H line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Brendan Donovan out · Not Specified Concussion Concussion+0.3 H when he sits
Without (60g)
0.7 H
50% over 0.5
With (6g)
0.3 H
33% over 0.5
Last matchup — @ NYY
Aug 12, 2026
29thof 30 in H allowed to hitters
NYY pitching allows 7.4 H per game to hitters (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 154 games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Colt Emerson has gone over 0.5 H 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 48% across the full season. NYY has been a tough matchup for hitters this season, allowing the 29th-most H of 30 teams (7.4 per game). His game-to-game H have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
T-Mobile Park · Seattle Mariners
pitcher-friendly (runs ×0.93, HR ×0.95)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 48%.