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Kansas City RoyalsConnor Seabold
#43 · P · 6-2 · 190 lb · 21 games
Stats updated: Jun 30, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 6 seasons
Line
Strikeouts (pitcher) · season avg 1.0 K · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Injured ListInjured ListConnor Seabold isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Right Lat Strain
- Est. return:
- Aug 30, 2026
Seabold had to be pulled from an appearance Tuesday against the Rays because of the injury. The severity of the strain is unclear, but even a mild one could result in longer than a minimum 15-day absence. Seabold has pitched for three different teams this season, collecting a 5.25 ERA and 20:11 K:BB across 24 frames.
Verdict
vs 0.5 KStrikeouts (pitcher)No readFireFactor 0/100· model 56% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)66supports it
Projection vs line56neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
0.8 K
L5 1.0 · L10 0.6 · med 0.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 2.0
Matchup
—
no matchup
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Last 2020 games
55%over
11 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 34%–74%Season21 games
57%over
12 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 37%–76%Alternate lines — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
K over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5Current | 57% | 12/21 | |
| 33% | 7/21 | ||
| 5% | 1/21 | ||
| 0% | 0/21 |
Situational splits
Over 0.5 K by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home60%6/10Low
Away55%6/11Low
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)0%0/1Low
1 day67%4/6Low
2 days33%1/3Low
3+ days60%6/10Low
With a teammate out
How this K line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Maikel Garcia out · Left Hand Strain-0.5 K when he sits
Without (5g)
0.6 K
40% over 0.5
With (16g)
1.1 K
63% over 0.5
Jonathan India out · Left Shoulder Surgery-1.3 K when he sits
Without (17g)
0.7 K
47% over 0.5
With (4g)
2.0 K
100% over 0.5
No matchup data for this prop yet.
The read
Over his last 10 games, Connor Seabold has gone over 0.5 K 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 57% across the full season. His game-to-game K have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Kauffman Stadium · Kansas City Royals
neutral (runs ×1.02, HR ×0.93)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 57%.