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Washington NationalsCurtis Mead
#11 · 3B · 6-1 · 225 lb · 69 games
Stats updated: Jul 27, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- Australia
- Experience
- 4 seasons
Line
Hits · season avg 1.0 H · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Injured ListInjured ListCurtis Mead isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Left Wrist Fracture
- Est. return:
- Sep 22, 2026
Mead has been out since late July with a fractured wrist, and Wednesday will mark the first time since then that he's done any sort of work with a bat in his hands. He still has several more boxes to check before he can rejoin the Red Sox's lineup, though it's still possible that he returns from the IL before the end of the regular season.
Verdict
vs 0.5 HHitsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 62% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)91supports it
Projection vs line62supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup0argues against it
Projection
0.9 H(×0.99 context)
L5 0.8 · L10 1.3 · med 1.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 2.0
Matchup
F
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Last 2020 games
70%over
14 over · 6 under
Medium confidence95% CI 48%–85%Season69 games
64%over
44 over · 25 under
High confidence95% CI 52%–74%Alternate lines — Hits (H)
H over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5Current | 64% | 44/69 | |
| 23% | 16/69 | ||
| 7% | 5/69 | ||
| 3% | 2/69 |
Situational splits
Over 0.5 H by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home62%23/37Medium
Away66%21/32Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)55%22/40Medium
1 day73%11/15Medium
2 days80%8/10Low
3+ days100%3/3Low
Next matchup — @ DET
Sep 21, 2026
26thof 30 in H allowed to hitters
DET pitching allows 7.7 H per game to hitters (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 155 games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Curtis Mead has gone over 0.5 H 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 64% across the full season. DET has been a tough matchup for hitters this season, allowing the 26th-most H of 30 teams (7.7 per game). His game-to-game H have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Nationals Park · Washington Nationals
neutral (runs ×1.00, HR ×1.00)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 64%.