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Kansas City RoyalsDaniel Lynch
#41 · P · 6-6 · 200 lb · 54 games
Stats updated: Sep 16, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 6 seasons
Line
Strikeouts (pitcher) · season avg 1.0 K · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 0.5 KStrikeouts (pitcher)No readFireFactor 15/100· model 64% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)80supports it
Projection vs line64supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
1.8 K
L5 2.2 · L10 1.8 · med 2.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 2.0
Matchup
—
no matchup
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
80%over
4 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%Last 1010 games
80%over
8 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 49%–94%Last 2020 games
60%over
12 over · 8 under
Medium confidence95% CI 39%–78%Season54 games
59%over
32 over · 22 under
Medium confidence95% CI 46%–71%Alternate lines — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
K over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5Current | 59% | 32/54 | |
| 26% | 14/54 | ||
| 11% | 6/54 | ||
| 0% | 0/54 |
Situational splits
Over 0.5 K by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home59%17/29Medium
Away60%15/25Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)38%3/8Low
1 day58%7/12Low
2 days56%9/16Medium
3+ days71%12/17Medium
With a teammate out
How this K line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Jonathan India out · Left Shoulder Surgery-0.6 K when he sits
Without (48g)
0.9 K
54% over 0.5
With (6g)
1.5 K
100% over 0.5
Lane Thomas out · Left Side Strain+0.5 K when he sits
Without (11g)
1.4 K
64% over 0.5
With (43g)
0.9 K
58% over 0.5
No matchup data for this prop yet.
The read
Over his last 10 games, Daniel Lynch has gone over 0.5 K 8 of 10 decided times (80%) — versus 59% across the full season. His game-to-game K have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Kauffman Stadium · Kansas City Royals
neutral (runs ×1.02, HR ×0.93)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Market edgeauto
6 books @ 3.5 K- No-vig fair (over)
- 45.4%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 54.6%
Best Over
FanDuel+112
-3.7% EV
Best Under
DraftKings-132
-4.1% EV
Model vs market (over)+19.0%
Our model puts the over at 64.4% vs the market's no-vig 45.4%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (3.5 K). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 59%.