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Chicago CubsDaniel Palencia
#48 · P · 5-11 · 160 lb · 19 games
Stats updated: Jun 15, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- Venezuela
- Experience
- 4 seasons
Line
Strikeouts (pitcher) · season avg 1.0 K · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Injured ListInjured ListDaniel Palencia isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Right Elbow Strain
- Est. return:
- Aug 11, 2026
Counsell noted that Palencia felt great after completing a side session Sunday, prompting the Cubs to clear the right-hander to take another small step forward Tuesday with a bullpen session that more closely simulates a game. Assuming that goes well, Palencia could face hitters in live batting practice later in the week before heading out on a minor-league rehab assignment in the first week of August. The 26-year-old has been on the shelf since June 16 due to a mild right flexor strain, after he had previously missed about three weeks earlier in the season on account of a lat strain.
Verdict
vs 0.5 KStrikeouts (pitcher)No readFireFactor 0/100· model 72% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it
Projection vs line72supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
1.2 K
L5 1.2 · L10 1.0 · med 1.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 1.4
Matchup
—
no matchup
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
80%over
4 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%Last 1010 games
70%over
7 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 40%–89%Last 2019 games
74%over
14 over · 5 under
Medium confidence95% CI 51%–88%Season19 games
74%over
14 over · 5 under
Medium confidence95% CI 51%–88%Alternate lines — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
K over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5Current | 74% | 14/19 | |
| 21% | 4/19 | ||
| 5% | 1/19 | ||
| 0% | 0/19 |
Situational splits
Over 0.5 K by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home83%10/12Medium
Away57%4/7Low
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)100%3/3Low
1 day100%1/1Low
2 days71%5/7Low
3+ days57%4/7Low
No matchup data for this prop yet.
The read
Over his last 10 games, Daniel Palencia has gone over 0.5 K 7 of 10 decided times (70%) — versus 74% across the full season. His game-to-game K have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Wrigley Field · Chicago Cubs
neutral (runs ×1.01, HR ×1.02)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 74%.