San Francisco Giants

Daniel Susac Total Bases

Stats updated: Aug 9, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Daniel Susac has gone over 0.5 TB in 4 of his last 10 decided games (40%), measured against our typical-game line.

Country: USA
Experience: Rookie

Line

Total Bases · season avg 1.4 TB

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OutDaniel Susac isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Injury:: Left Knee Fracture
Est. return:: Feb 1, 2027

Susac's rookie season will officially come to a close after he was initially placed on the IL last week due to a left knee patella fracture. Per MLB.com, Susac appears set to avoid surgery but will spend the next three weeks resting and rehabbing before he resumes baseball activities. He looks like he could be in line for a fairly normal offseason, setting the stage for Susac to be ready to go for the start of spring training. A Rule 5 Draft pick over the winter, the 25-year-old catcher slashed .243/.289/.375 with three home runs, two steals, 22 RBI and 11 runs over 161 plate appearances with the Giants.

Verdict

vs 0.5 TBTotal Bases

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 44% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)50neutral

Projection vs line44neutral

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

0.9 TB(×0.90 context)

L5 0.4 · L10 1.7 · med 0.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 3.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

20%over

1 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%

Last 1010 games

40%over

4 over · 6 under

Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%

Last 2020 games

40%over

8 over · 12 under

Medium confidence95% CI 22%–61%

Season40 games

53%over

21 over · 19 under

Medium confidence95% CI 37%–67%

Alternate lines — Total Bases (TB)

TB over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate TB line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	53%	21/40
	35%	14/40
	28%	11/40
	8%	3/40

Last 20 games — TB per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 TB by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home39%7/18Medium

Away64%14/22Medium

Days since last game

0 days (B2B)50%5/10Low

1 day47%9/19Medium

2 days75%3/4Low

3+ days50%3/6Low

With a teammate out

How this TB line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.

Matt Chapman out · Not Specified Abdomen Surgery+0.5 TB when he sits

Without (12g)

1.7 TB

42% over 0.5

With (28g)

1.2 TB

57% over 0.5

Last matchup — vs DET

Aug 9, 2026

26thof 30 in TB allowed to hitters

DET pitching allows 12.5 TB per game to hitters (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 162 games

Tough

The read

Over his last 10 games, Daniel Susac has gone over 0.5 TB 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 53% across the full season. DET has been a tough matchup for hitters this season, allowing the 26th-most TB of 30 teams (12.5 per game). His game-to-game TB have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Home park

Oracle Park · San Francisco Giants

pitcher-friendly (runs ×0.92, HR ×0.85)

Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 53%.