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San Diego PadresDavid Morgan
#66 · P · 6-0 · 185 lb · 18 games
Stats updated: Jun 27, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 2 seasons
Line
Strikeouts (pitcher) · season avg 1.4 K · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Injured ListInjured ListDavid Morgan isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Left Knee Inflammation
- Est. return:
- Aug 7, 2026
Morgan kicked off a rehab assignment in the rookie-level Arizona Complex League over the All-Star break, but he made just one appearance before being shut down due to soreness in his right trapezius muscle. The right-hander was able to move past the setback quickly and will likely need just a couple more appearances in the minors before he's deemed ready to rejoin the San Diego bullpen. Morgan submitted a 4.50 ERA and 1.77 WHIP over 18 appearances for the Padres before landing on the shelf June 29 due to left knee inflammation.
Verdict
vs 1.5 KStrikeouts (pitcher)No readFireFactor 0/100· model 61% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)79supports it
Projection vs line61supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
1.4 K
L5 1.0 · L10 1.5 · med 1.5
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.4 · ceil 2.0
Matchup
—
no matchup
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2018 games
39%over
7 over · 11 under
Medium confidence95% CI 20%–61%Season18 games
39%over
7 over · 11 under
Medium confidence95% CI 20%–61%Alternate lines — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
K over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 78% | 14/18 | ||
| 1.5Current | 39% | 7/18 | |
| 17% | 3/18 | ||
| 11% | 2/18 | ||
| 0% | 0/18 |
Situational splits
Over 1.5 K by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home42%5/12Low
Away33%2/6Low
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)0%0/3Low
1 day0%0/1Low
2 days80%4/5Low
3+ days38%3/8Low
With a teammate out
How this K line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Ramón Laureano out · Right Hip Surgery
Without (9g)
1.4 K
44% over 1.5
With (9g)
1.4 K
33% over 1.5
Samad Taylor out · Right Oblique Strain
Without (12g)
1.4 K
33% over 1.5
With (6g)
1.5 K
50% over 1.5
No matchup data for this prop yet.
The read
Over his last 10 games, David Morgan has gone over 1.5 K 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 39% across the full season. His game-to-game K have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.2), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Petco Park · San Diego Padres
pitcher-friendly (runs ×0.95, HR ×0.96)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 39%.