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Toronto Blue JaysDylan Cease
#84 · P · 6-2 · 200 lb · 29 games
Stats updated: Sep 18, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 8 seasons
Line
Strikeouts (pitcher) · season avg 8.2 K · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Day-to-dayDay-to-dayConfirm Dylan Cease's status before the game.
- Injury:
- Right Shoulder Inflammation
An MRI showed inflammation, with Cease saying his shoulder feels a "bit heavy and achy and not normal." In the unlikely event that the Blue Jays squeeze their way into the postseason, Cease could eventually return to pitch. However, it's a long shot that he will be back later this week before the curtains close on the regular season. Cease has collected a 2.40 ERA and 239:78 K:BB over 169 innings covering 29 starts in his first year with the Blue Jays.
Verdict
vs 8.5 KStrikeouts (pitcher)Cool underFireFactor 23/100· model 62% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)69supports it
Projection vs line62supports it
Consistency54neutral
Projection
6.9 K
L5 6.0 · L10 7.2 · med 7.5
Consistency
Steady
floor 6.6 · ceil 10.0
Matchup
—
no matchup
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice. Game-time decision — confirm status before acting.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 1010 games
30%over
3 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 11%–60%Last 2020 games
45%over
9 over · 11 under
Medium confidence95% CI 26%–66%Season29 games
45%over
13 over · 16 under
Medium confidence95% CI 28%–62%Alternate lines — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
K over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 90% | 26/29 | ||
| 79% | 23/29 | ||
| 62% | 18/29 | ||
| 8.5Current | 45% | 13/29 | |
| 31% | 9/29 | ||
| 17% | 5/29 | ||
| 10% | 3/29 |
Situational splits
Over 8.5 K by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home47%7/15Low
Away43%6/14Low
Days since last game
3+ days43%12/28Medium
No matchup data for this prop yet.
The read
Over his last 10 games, Dylan Cease has gone over 8.5 K 3 of 10 decided times (30%) — versus 45% across the full season. His game-to-game K have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 2.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Rogers Centre · Toronto Blue Jays
neutral (runs ×1.01, HR ×1.03)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 45%.