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Chicago CubsEdward Cabrera
#30 · P · 6-5 · 217 lb · 14 games
Stats updated: Jun 23, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- Dominican Republic
- Experience
- 6 seasons
Line
Strikeouts (pitcher) · season avg 4.6 K · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Injured ListInjured ListEdward Cabrera isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Left Hamstring Strain
- Est. return:
- Aug 12, 2026
Cubs manager Craig Counsell relayed Monday that Cabrera will likely need three rehab starts before rejoining the rotation, which would put the right-hander on track to return to the majors in mid-August. Cabrera landed on the 15-day injured list in late June due to a left hamstring injury. In his 14 starts before the injury, he had a 5-4 record with a 5.10 ERA, 1.40 WHIP and 65:29 K:BB over 72.1 innings.
Verdict
vs 4.5 KStrikeouts (pitcher)No readFireFactor 0/100· model 47% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)53neutral
Projection vs line47neutral
Consistency40argues against it
Projection
4.3 K
L5 4.0 · L10 4.8 · med 5.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 3.6 · ceil 6.0
Matchup
—
no matchup
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Last 2014 games
50%over
7 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 27%–73%Season14 games
50%over
7 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 27%–73%Alternate lines — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
K over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 14/14 | ||
| 86% | 12/14 | ||
| 79% | 11/14 | ||
| 4.5Current | 50% | 7/14 | |
| 29% | 4/14 | ||
| 14% | 2/14 | ||
| 7% | 1/14 |
Situational splits
Over 4.5 K by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%4/8Low
Away50%3/6Low
Days since last game
3+ days46%6/13Low
No matchup data for this prop yet.
The read
Over his last 10 games, Edward Cabrera has gone over 4.5 K 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 50% across the full season. His game-to-game K have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 1.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Wrigley Field · Chicago Cubs
neutral (runs ×1.01, HR ×1.02)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.