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San Diego PadresFernando Tatis
#23 · RF · 6-3 · 217 lb · 151 games
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- Dominican Republic
- Experience
- 8 seasons
Top reads — this player & matchup
pick one to load it belowRanked by FireFactor for the next matchup, straight from the game logs.
Line
Hits · season avg 1.1 H · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 1.5 HHitsFrozen underFireFactor 80/100· model 75% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it
Projection vs line75supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup100supports it
Projection
0.9 H(×0.89 context)
L5 0.8 · L10 1.2 · med 1.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 2.0
Matchup
F
defense vs role
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
0%over
0 over · 5 under
Medium confidence95% CI 0%–43%Last 1010 games
20%over
2 over · 8 under
Low confidence95% CI 6%–51%Last 2020 games
30%over
6 over · 14 under
Medium confidence95% CI 15%–52%Season151 games
29%over
44 over · 107 under
High confidence95% CI 22%–37%Alternate lines — Hits (H)
H over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 72% | 108/151 | ||
| 1.5Current | 29% | 44/151 | |
| 11% | 16/151 | ||
| 2% | 3/151 | ||
| 1% | 1/151 |
Situational splits
Over 1.5 H by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home31%23/74High
Away27%21/77High
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)29%36/126High
1 day32%7/22Medium
2 days0%0/1Low
3+ days100%1/1Low
With a teammate out
How this H line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Ramón Laureano out · Right Hip Surgery
Without (100g)
1.2 H
30% over 1.5
With (51g)
1.1 H
27% over 1.5
Miguel Andujar out · Right Wrist Fracture-0.2 H when he sits
Without (80g)
1.1 H
25% over 1.5
With (71g)
1.2 H
34% over 1.5
Next matchup — @ LAD
Sep 22, 2026
30thof 30 in H allowed to hitters
LAD pitching allows 7.2 H per game to hitters (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 156 games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Fernando Tatis has gone over 1.5 H 2 of 10 decided times (20%) — versus 29% across the full season. LAD has been a tough matchup for hitters this season, allowing the 30th-most H of 30 teams (7.2 per game). His game-to-game H have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Petco Park · San Diego Padres
pitcher-friendly (runs ×0.95, HR ×0.96)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Market edgeauto
3 books @ 0.5 H- No-vig fair (over)
- 67.7%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 32.3%
Best Over
BetMGM-250
-5.2% EV
Best Under
DraftKings+191
-6.1% EV
Model vs market (over)-42.8%
Our model puts the over at 24.9% vs the market's no-vig 67.7%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Hits (H)
Each book’s line and your season under rate at that number, vs the market consensus (0.5 H). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
under rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 29%.