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San Diego PadresFernando Tatis
#23 · RF · 6-3 · 217 lb · 113 games
Stats updated: Aug 7, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- Dominican Republic
- Experience
- 8 seasons
Line
Hits · season avg 1.1 H · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 0.5 HHitsHot overFireFactor 53/100· model 66% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it
Projection vs line66supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup25argues against it
Projection
1.0 H(×0.89 context)
L5 1.0 · L10 1.3 · med 1.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 2.0
Matchup
D
defense vs role
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
80%over
4 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%Last 1010 games
80%over
8 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 49%–94%Last 2020 games
70%over
14 over · 6 under
Medium confidence95% CI 48%–85%Season113 games
71%over
80 over · 33 under
High confidence95% CI 62%–78%Alternate lines — Hits (H)
H over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5Current | 71% | 80/113 | |
| 28% | 32/113 | ||
| 10% | 11/113 | ||
| 2% | 2/113 |
Situational splits
Over 0.5 H by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home76%42/55High
Away66%38/58High
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)69%64/93High
1 day78%14/18Medium
3+ days100%1/1Low
With a teammate out
How this H line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Ramón Laureano out · Right Hip Surgery
Without (62g)
1.1 H
69% over 0.5
With (51g)
1.1 H
73% over 0.5
Samad Taylor out · Right Oblique Strain-0.1 H when he sits
Without (88g)
1.1 H
69% over 0.5
With (25g)
1.2 H
76% over 0.5
Next matchup — vs HOU
Aug 8, 2026
22ndof 30 in H allowed to hitters
HOU pitching allows 7.9 H per game to hitters (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 117 games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Fernando Tatis has gone over 0.5 H 8 of 10 decided times (80%) — versus 71% across the full season. HOU has been a tough matchup for hitters this season, allowing the 22nd-most H of 30 teams (7.9 per game). His game-to-game H have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Petco Park · San Diego Padres
pitcher-friendly (runs ×0.95, HR ×0.96)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Market edgeauto
4 books @ 1.5 H- No-vig fair (over)
- 33.6%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 66.4%
Best Over
BetMGM+195
-1.0% EV
Best Under
DraftKings-236
-5.4% EV
Model vs market (over)+32.8%
Our model puts the over at 66.4% vs the market's no-vig 33.6%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Hits (H)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (1.5 H). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 71%.