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Boston Red SoxGarrett Crochet
#35 · P · 6-6 · 245 lb · 6 games
Stats updated: Apr 25, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 7 seasons
Line
Strikeouts (pitcher) · season avg 6.2 K · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Injured ListInjured ListGarrett Crochet isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Left Lat Strain
- Est. return:
- Aug 25, 2026
Initially placed on the injured list April 29 due to left shoulder inflammation, Crochet was cleared to face hitters in a one-inning simulated game May 26 but felt lat tightness a couple days following that workout and has been shut down from throwing baseballs ever since. Crochet was able to do some light throwing with weighted plyometric balls in mid-June, but he paused that activity at the beginning of July after he hadn't progressed as well as the Red Sox hoped. For now, Crochet's main focus will be doing strengthening exercises for his rotator cuff, though he acknowledged that he doesn't know what the training staff needs to see from him before he resumes throwing again. The lack of a clearer target date for Crochet's return at this point in the calendar makes it tough for managers in redraft leagues with limited IL or bench spots to justify holding him.
Verdict
vs 7.5 KStrikeouts (pitcher)No readFireFactor 0/100· model 70% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it
Projection vs line70supports it
Consistency24argues against it
Projection
6.1 K
L5 5.8 · L10 6.2 · med 7.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 7.0 · ceil 8.0
Matchup
—
no matchup
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 106 games
33%over
2 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 10%–70%Last 206 games
33%over
2 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 10%–70%Season6 games
33%over
2 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 10%–70%Alternate lines — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
K over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 83% | 5/6 | ||
| 83% | 5/6 | ||
| 83% | 5/6 | ||
| 7.5Current | 33% | 2/6 | |
| 0% | 0/6 | ||
| 0% | 0/6 | ||
| 0% | 0/6 |
Situational splits
Over 7.5 K by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%1/2Low
Away25%1/4Low
Days since last game
3+ days20%1/5Low
No matchup data for this prop yet.
The read
Over his last 6 games, Garrett Crochet has gone over 7.5 K 2 of 6 decided times (33%) — versus 33% across the full season. His game-to-game K have been highly variable (σ ≈ 2.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Fenway Park · Boston Red Sox
hitter-friendly (runs ×1.08, HR ×0.97)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 33%.