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Boston Red SoxGarrett Whitlock
#22 · P · 6-5 · 222 lb · 54 games
Stats updated: Sep 23, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 6 seasons
Line
Strikeouts (pitcher) · season avg 1.1 KSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutGarrett Whitlock isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Right Leg Fracture
- Est. return:
- Feb 1, 2027
The right-hander pitched through a fractured right tibia down the stretch, but he still pitched well as he didn't give up an earned run in his final nine outings of the regular season. It's no surprise that Boston picked up the option after he posted a 1.72 ERA, 0.90 WHIP and 59:9 K:BB while recording four saves and 27 holds in 54 regular-season appearances.
Verdict
vs 1.5 KStrikeouts (pitcher)No readFireFactor 0/100· model 72% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it
Projection vs line72supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
0.9 K
L5 1.0 · L10 1.3 · med 1.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 2.0
Matchup
—
no matchup
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 1010 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Last 2020 games
25%over
5 over · 15 under
Medium confidence95% CI 11%–47%Season54 games
30%over
16 over · 38 under
High confidence95% CI 19%–43%Alternate lines — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
K over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 76% | 41/54 | ||
| 1.5Current | 30% | 16/54 | |
| 4% | 2/54 | ||
| 0% | 0/54 | ||
| 0% | 0/54 |
Situational splits
Over 1.5 K by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home35%9/26Medium
Away25%7/28Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)20%2/10Low
1 day24%4/17Medium
2 days50%3/6Low
3+ days30%6/20Medium
With a teammate out
How this K line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Roman Anthony out · Right Hand Strain-0.2 K when he sits
Without (32g)
1.0 K
22% over 1.5
With (22g)
1.2 K
41% over 1.5
Caleb Durbin out · Left Finger Surgery+0.6 K when he sits
Without (3g)
1.7 K
67% over 1.5
With (51g)
1.1 K
27% over 1.5
No matchup data for this prop yet.
The read
Over his last 10 games, Garrett Whitlock has gone over 1.5 K 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 30% across the full season. His game-to-game K have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Fenway Park · Boston Red Sox
hitter-friendly (runs ×1.08, HR ×0.97)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 30%.