Loading…
Chicago CubsGavin Hollowell
#46 · P · 6-7 · 215 lb · 14 games
Stats updated: Jul 30, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Line
Strikeouts (pitcher) · season avg 0.9 K · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Injured ListInjured ListGavin Hollowell isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Right Shoulder Inflammation
- Est. return:
- Sep 20, 2026
Hollowell has been sidelined since late July with right shoulder inflammation, but he's ready to test things out in a game atmosphere. The right-handed reliever has allowed five runs (four earned) with a 13:8 K:BB over 14.1 innings during his time with the Cubs in 2026.
Verdict
vs 0.5 KStrikeouts (pitcher)No readFireFactor 0/100· model 54% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)88supports it
Projection vs line54neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
0.6 K
L5 0.4 · L10 1.0 · med 1.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 1.4
Matchup
—
no matchup
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Last 2014 games
64%over
9 over · 5 under
Medium confidence95% CI 39%–84%Season14 games
64%over
9 over · 5 under
Medium confidence95% CI 39%–84%Alternate lines — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
K over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5Current | 64% | 9/14 | |
| 21% | 3/14 | ||
| 7% | 1/14 | ||
| 0% | 0/14 |
Situational splits
Over 0.5 K by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home75%6/8Low
Away50%3/6Low
Days since last game
1 day50%1/2Low
2 days40%2/5Low
3+ days83%5/6Low
No matchup data for this prop yet.
The read
Over his last 10 games, Gavin Hollowell has gone over 0.5 K 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 64% across the full season. His game-to-game K have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Wrigley Field · Chicago Cubs
neutral (runs ×1.01, HR ×1.02)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 64%.