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Chicago CubsGavin Hollowell
#46 · P · 6-7 · 215 lb · 14 games
Stats updated: Jul 30, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Line
Strikeouts (pitcher) · season avg 0.9 K · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Injured ListInjured ListGavin Hollowell isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Right Shoulder Inflammation
- Est. return:
- Aug 15, 2026
Hollowell tossed a scoreless frame in Thursday's win over the Cardinals, but he evidently didn't bounce back well from the outing. Antoine Kelly will grab Hollowell's spot on the roster and in the bullpen.
Verdict
vs 0.5 KStrikeouts (pitcher)No readFireFactor 0/100· model 54% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)88supports it
Projection vs line54neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
0.6 K
L5 0.4 · L10 1.0 · med 1.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 1.4
Matchup
—
no matchup
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Last 2014 games
64%over
9 over · 5 under
Medium confidence95% CI 39%–84%Season14 games
64%over
9 over · 5 under
Medium confidence95% CI 39%–84%Alternate lines — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
K over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5Current | 64% | 9/14 | |
| 21% | 3/14 | ||
| 7% | 1/14 | ||
| 0% | 0/14 |
Situational splits
Over 0.5 K by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home75%6/8Low
Away50%3/6Low
Days since last game
1 day50%1/2Low
2 days40%2/5Low
3+ days83%5/6Low
No matchup data for this prop yet.
The read
Over his last 10 games, Gavin Hollowell has gone over 0.5 K 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 64% across the full season. His game-to-game K have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Wrigley Field · Chicago Cubs
neutral (runs ×1.01, HR ×1.02)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 64%.