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Miami MarlinsHeriberto Hernandez
#13 · LF · 5-11 · 195 lb · 65 games
Stats updated: Aug 5, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- Dominican Republic
- Experience
- 2 seasons
Linepays more
Hits · season avg 0.8 H · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
PrizePicks payout options — Hits (H)
Pick any line — standard, demon (harder, pays more), goblin (easier, pays less), or an alternate with its payout multiplier — and the whole read updates to it. Only the standard line takes an under; every other variant pays the over only. Each rung’s FireFactor is scored against its OWN payout breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for that payout, not a coin flip — so rungs compare directly. The bar uses the best information available: an exact posted multiplier, else the market’s de-vigged sportsbook odds at that exact line, else a published-payout approximation.
How PrizePicks payouts work with demons & goblins
Typical entry payouts (verify in the app — they change and can vary by state): Power Play 2-pick 3×, 3-pick 5×, 4-pick 10×. Flex Play 3-pick 2.25× (1.25× one miss), 4-pick 5× (1.5× one miss), 5-pick 10× (2× / 0.4× on misses), 6-pick 25× (2× / 0.4× on misses).
Demons: Adding a demon raises the whole entry’s payout multiple (a harder line buys a bigger multiplier). Demons can only be taken as More.
Goblins: Adding a goblin lowers the whole entry’s payout multiple (an easier line costs payout). Goblins can only be taken as More and aren’t combinable with everything — the app shows the exact adjusted payout.
Verdict
vs 1.5 HHitsNo readFireFactor 3/100· model 20% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)14argues against it
Projection vs line32argues against it
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup0argues against it
Projection
0.6 H(×0.92 context)
L5 0.4 · L10 0.5 · med 0.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 2.0
Matchup
F
defense vs role
Scored against this payout variant's ~35% breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for its payout, not a coin flip. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 1010 games
20%over
2 over · 8 under
Low confidence95% CI 6%–51%Last 2020 games
30%over
6 over · 14 under
Medium confidence95% CI 15%–52%Season65 games
23%over
15 over · 50 under
High confidence95% CI 15%–35%Situational splits
Over 1.5 H by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home19%6/31Medium
Away26%9/34Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)16%6/37High
1 day40%4/10Low
2 days30%3/10Low
3+ days29%2/7Low
Next matchup — @ ATL
Aug 6, 2026
27thof 30 in H allowed to hitters
ATL pitching allows 7.6 H per game to hitters (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 114 games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Heriberto Hernandez has gone over 1.5 H 2 of 10 decided times (20%) — versus 23% across the full season. ATL has been a tough matchup for hitters this season, allowing the 27th-most H of 30 teams (7.6 per game). His game-to-game H have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
loanDepot park · Miami Marlins
pitcher-friendly (runs ×0.94, HR ×0.92)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Market edgeauto
6 books @ 0.5 H- No-vig fair (over)
- 65.7%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 34.3%
Best Over
RT Sports-137
+13.6% EV
Best Under
DraftKings+185
-2.2% EV
Model vs market (over)-45.6%
Our model puts the over at 20.0% vs the market's no-vig 65.7%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Hits (H)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (0.5 H). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate. This demon/goblin/alternate line pays the over only — no under to price.
Over only — this payout variant doesn't take an under.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 23%.