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Chicago CubsHoby Milner
#41 · P · 6-3 · 187 lb · 38 games
Stats updated: Jun 25, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 10 seasons
Line
Strikeouts (pitcher) · season avg 0.5 K · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Injured ListInjured ListHoby Milner isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Not Specified Abdomen Surgery
- Est. return:
- Aug 4, 2026
Milner has been sidelined a little more than a month following an emergency appendectomy. It's unclear whether the Cubs have additional rehab appearances planned for the lefty, but his reinstatement from the 15-day injured list should come soon.
Verdict
vs 0.5 KStrikeouts (pitcher)No readFireFactor 0/100· model 61% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)79supports it
Projection vs line61supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
0.5 K
L5 0.6 · L10 0.4 · med 0.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 1.0
Matchup
—
no matchup
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
30%over
3 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 11%–60%Last 2020 games
50%over
10 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 30%–70%Season38 games
39%over
15 over · 23 under
Medium confidence95% CI 26%–55%Alternate lines — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
K over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5Current | 39% | 15/38 | |
| 8% | 3/38 | ||
| 0% | 0/38 | ||
| 0% | 0/38 |
Situational splits
Over 0.5 K by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home33%6/18Medium
Away45%9/20Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)44%4/9Low
1 day42%5/12Low
2 days25%2/8Low
3+ days50%4/8Low
No matchup data for this prop yet.
The read
Over his last 10 games, Hoby Milner has gone over 0.5 K 3 of 10 decided times (30%) — versus 39% across the full season. His game-to-game K have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Wrigley Field · Chicago Cubs
neutral (runs ×1.01, HR ×1.02)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 39%.